Orioles just got the Shane Baz trade benefit they were counting on

The Baltimore Orioles' decision to trade a haul of prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Shane Baz was one of the more heavily scrutinized moves any club has made this offseason. Some lauded the aggressiveness in landing a starter who oozes potential and comes with three years of team control. Others derided the move for the uncertainty the 26-year-old brings when what the Orioles need is a true ace.

Now, with the deadline to avoid arbitration fast approaching, we've seen exactly why Baltimore made such a deal. The Orioles settled with Baz for just $3.5 million. That number now shows us what a stroke of genius the move truly was.

The Orioles' arbitration settlement with Shane Baz looks brilliant, as it allows the club to eye another big move

Baz is no doubt an upside play, but he's one that allows the Orioles to line up another big splash without busting their payroll. The team has consistently been linked to former Houston Astros workhorse Framber Valdez, and even with Baz in the fold, those rumors have not slowed down.

In addition, MLB insiders claim there are strong links between Baltimore and free-agent ace Ranger Suarez. Landing either southpaw would give the Orioles the ace they desperately need, and the affordability of Baz (monetarily, not in terms of prospects) has made it a real possibility that they can reel in one of these big fish.

Here's where the real beauty comes in. Let's say the Orioles were able to land Valdez or Suarez to head the rotation, and Baz makes the leap to become the pitcher they hope he could be. With Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish supporting them as other high-potential arms, and Dean Kremer serving as a steady No. 5, Baltimore could suddenly have one of the game's best rotations.

For Baz, it all comes down to staying healthy and harnessing his elite stuff. The repertoire is fantastic. Taking a look at FanGraph's Stuff+ rankings for 2025, you'll find Baz coming in 13th in the MLB with a 107 mark. That performance was just one point off of Valdez's 108 mark, and tied with two of the game's very best in Paul Skenes and Hunter Brown.

Gambling on Baz alone would have been too risky for a club that resides in the gauntlet known as the AL East. But pairing him with a bona fide ace like Valdez or Suarez can be transformative for a team whose starting rotation produced a 4.65 ERA last season, pitifully ranking 24th in the league.

Even if Baz pitches more like a mid-rotation starter, at $3.5 million, he's still a steal, especially if there's a legitimate veteran stud heading up the rotation. Baltimore has to stick the landing on the second leg of this gamble, but if it does, it will come out smelling like roses.