Orioles stand to gain as Mets president's philosophy clouds Framber Valdez pursuit

After seeing the Houston Astros sign Japanese free agent pitcher Tatsuya Imai to a three-year, $63 million deal, many experts and pundits throughout baseball assume the race to sign Framber Valdez is now down to just two teams — the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Mets.

Both the O's and Mets have been linked to Valdez since the offseason began. While the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, and Atlanta Braves are said to be targeting top-tier pitching too, none of those teams have been connected to Valdez this winter.

If it's truly a two-horse race between the Orioles and Mets, most outsiders would assume that New York has the advantage, right? No one is going to outspend Mets' owner Steve Cohen, as he so arrogantly demonstrated last winter after signing Juan Soto to a record-breaking deal.

Mets president David Stearns' philosophy could gift-wrap Framber Valdez for the Orioles

But Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has a long track record of not handing out big-time deals to pitchers. Such a philosophy could work in the Orioles' favor this offseason, as Valdez is said to be seeking a multi-year contract.

Most outlets assume Valdez will be able to land a five or six-year deal worth upwards of $30-$32 million annually. That equates to a contract worth $160-180 million. Throughout his tenure as the Milwaukee Brewers' top decision maker, Stearns never came close to handing a contract remotely close to that. In fact, he would trade players who were in line for such deals before they reached free agency.

Though Stearns had already resigned prior to the Corbin Burnes trade, he did nothing to keep the Brewers' ace in Milwaukee. The same held true for Brandon Woodruff, and since joining the Mets, Stearns' contract offers for starting pitchers have been underwhelming to say the least.

The Mets inked Sean Manea to a three-year, $75 million deal last winter and also signed Frankie Montas to a two-year contract worth $34 million. Stearns' biggest move might've been securing reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes for three years at $38 million. Collectively, the Mets spent nearly $150 million on middle-of-the-road starters rather than grabbing an ace like Burnes, Blake Snell, or Max Fried.

If Stearns shies away from such a deal again this winter, the Orioles could swoop in and steal Valdez away from the Mets. Baltimore has already shown a penchant for throwing caution to the wind this offseason, and doing so once again could enable them to snatch another free agent away from Queens.