Orioles' Cy Young trade idea looks better on paper than in practice

The Baltimore Orioles made a lot of moves over the offseason, but left the winter without checking off the biggest item on their wish list. They desperately needed an ace to lead their rotation, but came up empty, despite being linked to nearly every top arm on the free-agent market and trade block.

As spring training unfolds, they'll look to see if they believe that any of their incumbents, headlined by Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. Rogers got roughed up by Team Netherlands, and while that was mitigated by some sloppy play behind him, it wasn't what you want to see. Bradish has a 7.20 ERA through two spring appearances, which is also less than ideal.

There's a chance that Mike Elias gets panicky and decides to pull off a trade for another starter before Opening Day, and Bleacher Report came up with a proposal to make that happen, predicting the Orioles trade Coby Mayo and Dean Kremer to the Miami Marlins in exchange for Sandy Alcantara.

The proposed deal would give Baltimore a former Cy Young winner in the rotation, but it doesn't really solve any of the problems facing the squad.

Bleacher Report's proposed trade lands Sandy Alcantara with the Orioles, but doesn't solve the rotation's biggest issue

The Orioles have been linked to Alcantara going back to the lead-up to last year's trade deadline. This mock trade isn't as bad as some of the ones we saw back then, but that doesn't mean that it's a good idea now.

Before we get into the price the Orioles would have to pay for Alcantara, let's first ask ourselves what bringing him in really solves. The 30-year-old was the 2022 NL Cy Young, but a lot has transpired since then.

En route to the Cy Young, Alcantara posted a 2.28 ERA, by far the best mark of his career. His 2023 follow-up was nowhere near as good, with him recording a 4.14 mark over 28 starts before going down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery and wiped out his 2024 campaign.

Finally back on the mound last season, Alcantara was awful in the first half, posting a 7.22 ERA. He was much better after the All-Star break with a 3.33 ERA to close out the year, but it's going to take more than half a year of good production to believe he's back to his peak form.

If that was all it took, why not just ride with Rogers, who twirled a 1.81 ERA over more innings than Alcantara tossed in the second half? Or Bradish, who looked even more impressive in albeit limited action last season while making his own way back from Tommy John surgery?

Alcantara will make $17.3 million this season and then could make another $21 million next year if his club option is picked up. That's a lot of money to gamble on a player who last pitched like an ace four years ago. If this hypothetical trade were to go down and Alcantara didn't live up to expectations, the Orioles would likely lose him for nothing in the offseason.

The actual talent that Baltimore would have to give up in this deal isn't a huge problem. Coby Mayo's stock has dropped considerably, though with the injuries to Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, he holds a greater importance now than he did a few weeks ago. As for Kremer, he's a fine back-end starter, but the Orioles have plenty of those types with Zach Eflin, Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, and others already in the fold.

The biggest issue is that Alcantara would bring no more certainty to the top of the rotation than what already exists, so without answering a major question, why surrender assets at all, especially when he comes with a bloated salary? Trading for him is simply doing something to say you have a former Cy Young winner in your rotation. It has no bearing on what he may do moving forward and, therefore, serves no point.