Orioles' contract option for Seranthony Dominguez is more complicated than it looks

The Orioles have 5 players with impending club options this offseason, and none of them may be as important a decision as whether to bring back nominal 2024 closer Seranthony Dominguez.

Dominguez had some ups and downs after coming to Baltimore at the trade deadline this summer. It didn't take long for him to supplant the eventually DFA'd Craig Kimbrel as the O's closer, but he faltered in a couple big spots down the stretch and isn't the lockdown guy some of us wish he was.

In total, Dominguez pitched to a 4.45 ERA in 2024, along with a 4.68 FIP. He did have better results after the trade, as he posted a 3.97 ERA in 22.2 innings in Baltimore. However, that reduced ERA also came with an inflated 5.33 FIP, thanks in large part to an almost 20% home run to fly ball rate.

It's fair to assume that Dominguez will be a bit better in 2025. He's a career 3.59 ERA reliever and in the two years prior to coming to Baltimore, he pitched to a combined 3.39 ERA and a 25.3% strikeout rate in 101 innings with the Phillies.

Will the Orioles pick up Seranthony Dominguez's contract option for 2025?

The problem, if you'll call it that, is that the Orioles hold an $8 million club option on Dominguez for the 2025 season. For the John Angelos Orioles, letting him walk would have been a no-brainer but the O's are now under new ownership. Also, the Orioles expect to have Felix Bautista ready for spring training and he'll almost certainly slide right back into the closer's role on Opening Day.

$8 million feels like quite a bit of money to pay for a setup guy coming off a career-worst year and entering his age-30 season. The O's already have Yennier Cano in a setup role, and Cano was one of the most reliable relievers in the bullpen all year.

If the Orioles can use that $8 million to upgrade other parts of the roster, wouldn't that be the smart thing to do? Well, yes and no. It would be great if we knew for sure that Mike Elias would use that money wisely. Nothing against Elias, but those free agent signings don't always work out the way you'd hoped for though. Case in point is the Kimbrel signing last winter.

Additionally, the Orioles will have a couple holes in the bullpen heading into 2025. The team is already down two starters in Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, who are recovering from respective Tommy John surgeries and won't return until the second half of 2025. Corbin Burnes is also expected to leave in free agency, so some of the fringe guys like Albert Suarez and Cade Povich will likely get pushed toward the rotation.

The O's bullpen had a few horrific moments in 2024 and while Dominguez was part of that group, it might make sense to bring him back in a lower leverage role where he's typically been used in the past.

Ultimately, $8 million isn't a ton of money and with new owner David Rubenstein at the helm, Elias should have more wiggle room in the budget. That would, in theory, give the team more leeway to take chances with the roster and won't be a major hindrance if someone like Dominguez fails next summer.

For now, it seems likely that the O's won't pick up Dominguez's option and he'll enter free agency looking for a deal elsewhere. But don't be surprised if the O's decide to roll the dice and bring back a guy who, despite having a down year in 2024, has been good in the past and could be an asset for next year's roster.