Orioles can’t afford to fall for Pirates’ risky trade bait this offseason

It's no secret that the Baltimore Orioles will be in the market for upgrades to the starting rotation. The question will be whether or not they'll be willing to spend what it takes, in both dollars and years, to get the job done given the other pressing roster needs aside from an ace.

That might push Mike Elias to look at the league's most available starting pitcher, Mitch Keller of the Pirates, as an alternative. However, that would be a mistake.

Orioles would be wise to avoid Pirates starter Mitch Keller like the plague this winter

One of the attractive things about Keller is that he's signed for three more years at a contract that is slightly below market rate. Despite that affordability, Pittsburgh is desperate to get him off its books as they don't like paying any player any amount of money it seems.

Despite the Pirates' desperation to cut costs, they didn't move him at the trade deadline in what was a stronger market due to an extremely high asking price. It's believed that, in addition to the receiving team taking on all of Keller's remaining money, they'd also have to part with top prospects in order to execute what is essentially a salary dump. Not exactly quite the bargain anymore.

While that's one reason to stay away, there's a more important point that should keep the Orioles on the sidelines in the Keller sweepstakes: he's not an upgrade for them.

Keller is durable, making at least 29 starts and tossing at least 159 innings in each of the last four seasons, including a career-high 194 innings pitched in 2023. However, in all that time, he's logged an ERA below four just once, coming in at 3.91 back in 2022.

In 2025, Keller finished with a 4.19 ERA and 4.02 FIP with 7.66 K/9 and 2.60 BB/9 over 176.1 innings. For comparison's sake, Dean Kremer posted a 4.19 ERA and 3.97 FIP with 7.44 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9 while throwing 171.2 innings. Is cloning Dean Kremer what the rotation really needs?

No. Like Kremer, Keller is a useful middle-to-back-end starter and a reliable innings eater, but he's not an ace. Rolling the dice that Grayson Rodriguez can come back and ascend to that role, or banking that Trevor Rodgers' 109.2 innings of brilliance holds more weight than the rest of his more extensive and much more mediocre track record, while adding an arm like Keller is a recipe to repeat 2025 all over again.

If the Orioles decide they don't want to pay top-tier prices on the free-agent market for the likes of Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, or Ranger Suarez, then pivoting to a discounted Michael King would make much more sense. If they truly prefer the trade market, then legitimate aces like Freddy Peralta or Joe Ryan could be had with less of a hit to the budget despite the increased price in prospect capital.

The Orioles, like all rotation-needy teams, will undoubtedly be linked to Keller this offseason, but an actual deal would be a grave mistake. Not only does Keller not solve anything for Baltimore, but he'll also come at a prohibitively high cost if the Pirates stick to their demands.