The Orioles are heading into a pivotal offseason. Two years ago, they arrived ahead of schedule and won 101 games, but suffered an early postseason exit. This year, they overcame countless injuries en route to 91 wins, an overall impressive season, but were swept in the postseason for the second year in a row. Many fans see this upcoming season as a turning point for future of the franchise, and it's tough to blame them.
With staff ace Corbin Burnes and star outfielder Anthony Santander set to enter free agency in just a couple weeks, the Orioles need to remain vigilant and utilize the free agent and trade markets to address a few different roster holes prior to next spring.
GM Mike Elias spoke with reporters in his end of year press conference and addressed questions about the O's budget moving forward. Elias suggested that new owner David Rubenstein was committed to giving the Orioles the financial flexibility they need, and also claimed that the Birds were ready to increase payroll for the 2025 season.
While part of that expected payroll increase may come from external additions, there are core players on the team who the Orioles need to be having conversations with about potential long-term contract extensions as well.
The Orioles will need to go past their comfort zone if they want to extend their young stars
Elias addressed the contract extension question on the NY Post's "The Show" podcast earlier this week. During the interview, Elias stated that "we will be making every responsible attempt to examine ways to keep them", in regard to a number of young players in the O's core.
The key word that many are focusing on in his quote there is "responsible". Yes, the Orioles want to keep their star players. Everyone in the front office would love to get Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman locked up on long-term deals. But the reality is that both sides have to come to an agreement for the deal to get done.
Both Rutschman and Henderson have good cases to be paid like the star players they've proven to be. In Henderson's case, there's a great comp over in Kansas City in superstar Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals signed Witt to an 11-year deal worth $288 million prior to the start of this season.
Witt had just come off his first elite year and the Royals thought it wise to extend him. Witt immediately came through and will likely finish second in AL MVP voting this year, proving the Royals right in their decision.
Henderson is in a similar spot, coming off a season in which he put up 8 fWAR and will receive down-ballot MVP votes as well. If the Orioles want to keep him, it'll likely take upwards of $300 million. While that feels like a big number, it's the going rate for players of his age and caliber.
Rutschman wouldn't require that kind of deal but north of $100 million would be expected. There are a few other guys further down the line, like Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and Grayson Rodriguez who could be in the conversation, but the two names at the top of this list, without a doubt, are Henderson and Rutschman.
Mike Elias and the Orioles' front office might not find it "responsible" to dish out $300 million when these guys are locked up via team control and arbitration salaries for several more years. But the longer the team waits, the less likely it becomes that the O's will be able to retain them.
The Birds don't need to go out and spend a billion dollars like the Dodgers did this past winter. But if they want to be competitive in the market for emerging superstars, they're going to need to go outside of their comfort zone to do so. Thinking rationally about every payroll dollar spent isn't going to get you anywhere.