This winter is going to be a big one, for a number of reasons. Juan Soto is a generational talent. He'll be hitting the free agent market at 26 years old and experts are suggesting he could approach Shohei Ohtani's record $700 million deal that the Japanese superstar signed just last winter.
While there are going to be other star players available, including stud pitchers Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and potentially Gerrit Cole, Soto will be the real prize. While those of us at Birds Watcher have already written about why the Orioles should pursue him, MLB media members are now starting to make similar claims.
During an MLB Network hit over the weekend, Mad Dog Russo staked a claim and suggested that Soto to the Orioles could be a real possibility. Russo is known for his over the top takes but his reasoning for the Soto claim is at least grounded in reality.
Russo noted that the O's have a new owner, David Rubenstein. And while Russo didn't specifically mention Rubenstein's quotes from last month, it's clear that the Orioles are heading in a different direction under Rubenstein's leadership than they were under the purview of John Angelos.
Could the Orioles really land Juan Soto this offseason?
It's a bit crazy to think that the Orioles, who have become known for their aggressively cheap tactics under Angelos, could go after one of the most expensive players in MLB history. And while it might be unlikely that Mike Elias goes to bat against teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers and their frustratingly deep pockets, the fact that it's even considered possible is a massive step in the right direction for this franchise.
As of this morning, Cot's Contracts has the Orioles projected to be at $91.2 million in terms of their CBT payroll figure heading into 2025. That number is a rough estimate based on loose arbitration projections but the point there is that they're going to be about $150 million below the $241 million CBT cap.
There are still holes to fill, including the big one that'll be left by Burnes' departure. But signing Soto in this scenario plugs the hole left by Anthony Santander, so they wouldn't need to add a right fielder or make any lineup adjustments to add Soto.
Soto will probably wind up making between $40-$50 million per year. So given a little leeway, if the Orioles were to sign Soto at that rate, they'd have roughly $100 million left to spend before hitting the first CBT penalty threshold.
Maybe the Orioles don't push that close to the cap. It would be well outside the norm for Elias and his right-hand man Sig Mejdal to go wild in free agency, even if they have the expressed permission of Rubenstein to spend freely. But they certainly can, and Rubenstein has the resources to allow Elias to do so.
Whether or not the Orioles get Soto is almost besides the point. It would be incredible if they could land the young lefty. He'd fit perfectly into the young core in Baltimore and the O's would still have payroll space to maneuver around Soto's significant salary. But with or without Soto, it's a great time to be an Orioles fan.