Kyle Bradish slow start continues, but there is reason to believe he has turned a corner

Kyle Bradish has had a disappointing start to his season. After he looked more dominant than ever in his return from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2025, most people assumed that he would carry that dominance over to the 2026 season and pick up where he left off before his injury as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. It's early, but so far this season, Bradish has looked a lot like a pitcher recovering from a major injury, which has caused some concern as far as his ability to help carry the Baltimore Orioles rotation.

The final line on Bradish's most recent start doesn't do much to assuage those concerns, but several things happened in that start that were encouraging.

Kyle Bradish's declining velocity has been a problem, but he maintained it in his most recent start

In Bradish's last start of spring training as well as his first three starts of the season, the velocity on his four-seam fastball and sinker declined as the game went along. Both of those pitches typically sit between 94-96 mph, and towards the end of his starts, they were coming in at 91-93 mph. Whether you typically throw 99 mph or 89 mph, losing 3 mph of velocity on your fastball is not good. Hitting is a battle of milliseconds, and giving up 3 mph over the course of the game makes it that much easier to hit the fastball or see it out of the zone and lay off.

Bradish consistently declining in velocity as early as the third inning in his starts was cause for concern, but in his most recent start, he maintained the fastball velocity all the way through the last batter he faced. The three fastballs he threw in the sixth inning came in at 95.9, 95.4, and 96.2 mph.

Now that brings back a concern: why only three fastballs in his last inning? Did Bradish intentionally avoid fastballs towards the end of the game to avoid burning his arm out? It's hard to say; he was throwing hard sliders, which isn't exactly easier on the arm. It's definitely something to watch.  Back to the good news, though.

Kyle Bradish getting his command back is just as important as his velocity staying consistent

Besides the decline in velocity, the most uncharacteristic part of Bradish's early-season starts was his struggles with command. It's not that Bradish never walked anyone pre-injury, but he never had a walk rate over 10%, and many of his walks were a result of intentionally trying to get chases in the shadow of the zone. Bradish walked three batters in each of his first three starts, especially considering that he went no deeper than five innings in any of those starts, which is far too many.

The concerning thing with these walks was that they were largely uncompetitive. It was a lot of ball fours that were the kinds of pitches where the batter gets to breathe a sigh of relief because it's an obvious ball out of the hand. The poor command also manifested in the form of extra base hits. In Bradish's duel with Konnor Griffin, he had made Griffin look like a fool for the first few pitches of the at-bat. He threw a curveball that was supposed to be out of the zone to get a swinging strike three, and instead it was left up in the heart of the zone, making it the most hittable pitch imaginable in that situation.

In Bradish's most recent start, he only walked one batter, and his two-strike and three-ball pitches were much more competitive. The final line makes it look like he got hit around, but 2 of the "earned runs" would never have scored if the Orioles put a real outfielder in left field. It should have been a six-inning two-run start and a clear indicator that Bradish was on the right track, and instead looks like more of the same.

Coming back from Tommy John surgery is hard. It was unfair to expect Bradish to come back and immediately be the guy who pitches 180 innings at a sub-3 ERA for this team. There are going to be continued struggles, but he's going to improve and feel better. The Orioles can hope that by the end of the season, he's at the point where he can be the ace he was pre-surgery.

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