Kyle Bradish's last spring training start should spark real concern for Orioles fans

This offseason, everyone was saying that the Baltimore Orioles needed to go out and sign one of the best starting pitchers available in free agency. The Orioles showed some interest in Ranger Suarez, but when the bidding got too high, they backed off. The team's confidence in Kyle Bradish may have been high enough to forgo spending on the top of the rotation starter. Do they believe Bradish is that guy?

That belief is not unfounded. Bradish has been that type of pitcher before. Since the start of the 2023 season, when healthy, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Since 2024, he has had a 2.65 ERA, a 2.48 FIP, a 1.05 WHIP, and a K/9 of 12.6 in 14 starts. Those are similar numbers to some of the best pitchers in the league.

Orioles are relying on Kyle Bradish to be Cy Young-caliber pitcher

If Bradish pitches like the Cy Young candidate he's been in the past, then much of the hand-wringing about the Orioles' offseason and starting rotation will have been for naught. It's possible for him, but it is asking a lot of a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery.

In his last scrimmage of spring training against the Washington Nationals, Bradish pitched well and went as deep as he's gone in any game this spring. By that measure, it was a very successful last tune-up before his scheduled start of Game 2 of the series against the Minnesota Twins.

Bradish gradually lost velocity over the course of that start, however. In his final inning of work, his four-seam fastball that typically averages about 95 mph was down at 92 mph. That can mean a couple of things.

It's very possible that Bradish was just gently powering down as the start went on to avoid an injury. If that's the case, then no worries at all. It's also possible that he was losing velocity because he was experiencing fatigue or dealing with some kind of injury. Both of those options would bode very poorly for a version of the Orioles season that depends on getting a Cy Young caliber season from Bradish.

Even if there hasn't been any actual bad news, the velocity drop is a good reminder that a fully healthy Bradish season isn't something to take for granted. He's only pitched a full season once, and he had to undergo Tommy John surgery soon after. Plenty of pitchers who have come back from Tommy John have dealt with setbacks in their first season or, at the very least, had to be handled with care.

The Orioles putting almost all their eggs in one basket and it puts a lot of pressure on a pitcher who would benefit a lot from everyone managing their expectations as he recovers from major surgery. Instead, he'll be expected to carry a heavy load for a rotation that has plenty of depth but lacks top-end talent.