Orioles facing real concern as Kyle Bradish trend becomes impossible to ignore

During Kyle Bradish's first start of the 2026 season, his velocity dipped over the course of the game. At the start of the game, Bradish was firing in fastballs at 95 mph; by the time he was pulled from the game in the fifth inning, his fastball was down to 92 mph. After the game, Bradish was asked about this notable drop in velocity and shrugged it off as being the result of the cold and building up strength. However, his next start was on a nice, warm day in Pittsburgh, and the same phenomenon returned.

This also happened in Bradish's last spring training start against the Washington Nationals. So there are now three documented incidents of this gradual loss of velocity. It's an undeniable trend that is completely unrelated to the weather.

If Kyle Bradish isn't an ace the Orioles rotation is in a lot of trouble

What does it mean, though? Seeing a velocity decline throughout a start is not typically voluntary. It would be much more normal if Bradish were just sitting at 93. If that were the case, the excuse of "I'm building up strength" would make more sense. Seeing the velo start high and drop makes it seem like Bradish is trying to throw at his normal velocity, and his arm is failing him.

Another factor contributing to Bradish's disappointing start to the season has been his command. Bradish isn't known for having pinpoint command, but he's never been wild. So far this season, he's struggled to put the ball where he wants to put it, and that has manifested itself in non-competitive walks and breaking balls left hanging over the plate. That's a bad recipe, and he's paid the price for following it.

Bad command and the inability to hold your fastball velocity are not a winning combination. If Bradish can't figure out how to maintain his velocity and get a feel for his command, then the Orioles won't be able to afford to keep giving him starts. His 6.23 ERA this season is not unlucky; it's the natural result of how he's pitched so far.

This is a major issue for the Orioles because they basically bet their season on Bradish being an ace. There were ace pitchers available this offseason, and the Orioles decided they didn't need one in large part because they believed Kyle Bradish was going to be that level of pitcher. If, instead of an ace, he's a five-and-dive guy who walks a lot of people and throws 92, that's a huge letdown. The worst part is that if he's not an ace, this season is pretty much over. There is no way the Orioles can replace the production they thought they'd get from Bradish if he's not going to be the one to deliver it.

The good news is that every start, he shows off what he can do. His arm is still capable of throwing 96-97 mph, and he can still spin a nasty slider. It's just a matter of making it last. If he can put these issues in the rear view, these first two starts will be a funny joke when he finishes the season with his usual sub-3 ERA.