Jackson Holliday is not a bust yet, but Orioles fans may want to temper expectations

First overall pick? Check. Premium bloodlines? Check. A never-ending hype train on his way to the big leagues? Check. Jackson Holliday has had every indication that he'd become a superstar, but after two years, the Baltimore Orioles' second baseman has left us wanting more.

Now, his latest setback will put his chances of ever achieving his destiny in jeopardy. The 22-year-old's fractured hamate bone means he'll likely miss Opening Day. The silver lining is that the recovery timeline isn't incredibly long, at least in terms of how long it will take him to return to the field.

The issue is what happens once he returns. While there's no guarantee, hamate bone injuries can sap a player's power well after he's recovered from surgery and gone back into action. For a player like Holliday, that could be a real concern. The former No. 1 overall prospect has shown improvement from his 2024 debut, but although his 2025 campaign was a step forward, that's mostly because he set the bar so low. Last year's .242/.314/.375 line only looks good when you compare it to 2024's .189/.255/.311 showing.

At this point, the biggest concern for Holliday is whether or not he can make solid contact consistently enough despite alarmingly low bat speed. The latest injury is just another barrier he'll have to climb to silence the doubters.

Jackson Holliday's injury should have us all tempering expectations for the Orioles' youngster

To be clear, this does not mean that we need to write Holliday off. He just turned 22 in December, and entering his third season in the majors, he's still younger than many top prospects who will be debuting in 2026.

But it would be remiss not to note the importance of showing some great improvement this year, not only for Baltimore's postseason chances, but to further define his career outlook. This isn't a make-or-break year, per se, but it's close.

And the injury will only hamper him in answering the questions that plague him. At some point, prolonged struggles become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Development isn't linear, but with everything Holliday has going for him, there are expectations and a timer that is running.

This isn't all on Holliday either. If he struggles again this season, the injury will likely shoulder some blame, but so too should the Orioles. They didn't have to call him up at 20-years-old, but chose to anyway. There can be detrimental effects that can change a prospect's trajectory for good if he's called up too soon and struggles.

Holliday has all the talent in the world. But, like a USDA Prime steak, even the most apetitizing products can be inedible of you don't prepare them correctly. Rushing a prospect can have devastating mental effects if he struggles and can completely derail his development. Miscooking a delicious piece of meat can result in you serving inedible rubber. It's all kind of the same thing, really.

In all seriousness, a breakout 2026 cures all ills, but the injury puts that in jeopardy. With continued failure to perform up to expectations at the major league level, Holliday could wind up in a position where he never realizes his full potential.