Former GM says Orioles have real fight on their hands for Framber Valdez

The Baltimore Orioles have made it clear that they aren't done adding to their starting rotation despite the moves for Shane Baz and Zach Eflin. It seemed like they had something big up their sleeve, with rumors circulating that they were targeting Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez even after bringing Eflin back into the fold.

A move for one of these front-end starters seemed imperative, as Baz is all projection, Eflin doesn't have that ceiling, and no one else in the existing crop of starters has proven that they can truly lead a rotation. However, with Suarez off the board, signing with the rival Boston Red Sox, Valdez stands alone as the only candidate left who can give Baltimore the boost it needs.

Valdez's market is taking shape, and, according to former New York Mets general manager Steve Phillips, it has become a two-horse race between the Orioles and the Mets.

Steve Phillips predicts that the Framber Valdez sweepstakes will come down to the Orioles and the Mets

Both New York and Baltimore have holes at the top of their rotations that Valdez would fit perfectly. Phillips called Valdez the best free-agent starter on the market this offseason, ahead of even Dylan Cease, who signed a surprisingly large seven-year, $210 million contract early on this winter.

Based on the track record, he's not wrong. Valdez has pitched the second-most innings in baseball with 767.2 over the last four seasons and owns a career 3.36 ERA. The mileage on the arm might be a concern, but it's also a selling point to a club like the Orioles, who have several hurlers such as Baz, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and others who have struggled to stay healthy.

The same goes for the Mets. They hoped Kodai Senga would be their ace when they brought him over from Japan. At first, it looked like they were right as he posted a 2.98 ERA over 166.1 innings in his first season stateside. However, Senga has made just 23 starts over the last two seasons combined, and even spent some time in Triple-A last season working through a funk.

Their other veterans: Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes, are all mid-rotation arms with various pros and cons, and their top pitching prospects, led by Nolan McLean, are tantalizing but unproven.

Phillips believes that Valdez, who is repped by Scott Boras, will get a five-year deal, as Boras was just able to secure such a commitment for Suarez with Boston. That could make this all come down to which executive is willing to compromise on his principles first.

Mike Elias told us all back in October that he was willing to pay big in dollars and years for a top arm if it was the right fit, which hasn't happened yet, and would be a significant deviation from his standard operating procedure.

Given the recent Justin Verlander rumors, it either seems as if Elias isn't planning to live up to that promise, and/or is already preparing for what's next should he lose the Valdez bidding war.

Mets front office leader, David Stearns, has a similar philosophy. His team has lacked a true ace for some time despite bottomless pockets. He completely sat out the Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell contests last offseason and has never given a starter a deal longer than three years. In fact, this offseason, he's shied away from lengthy contracts entirely, letting Pete Alonso walk to Baltimore and signing replacements in Jorge Polanco (two years) and Bo Bichette (three years) to short-term, high-AAV contracts.

This is a true staring contest, and whichever franchise blinks first will likely be the winner of the top prize left on the free-agent pitching market.