Blue Jays turn up ticking clock on Orioles with Vladimir Guerrero Jr extension

While the rest of the east coat was asleep last night, the Blue Jays pulled off a shocking move and signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr to a massive contract extension. There had been rumors about Vladito getting a truckload of money in free agency this coming winter, but there were also reports that he'd rebuked Toronto's initial offers and even turned down a contract that would have given him north of $500 million.

Well, that's all in the past now, as Guerrero and the Jays have reached a deal that'll keep the four-time All Star in Toronto for the next 14 years and pay him exactly $500 million, with no deferrals. That evens out to just over $35 million per year, starting in 2026. The deal runs through Vladito's age 40 season.

For one, good for Blue Jays fans. That group has been through the ringer, especially recently with the massive Shohei Ohtani debacle and a group of free agents spurning Toronto's efforts and signing elsewhere. On the face, this is an important move. It shows Jays fans that their front office is capable of landing a big name and doing what it takes on the financial side to get it done.

Blue Jays sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr to a 14 year extension worth $500 million

On the field, however, is where you lose me. Guerrero is already a DH. He still technically plays first base on occasion and has even gotten a couple starts at third in recent years but he's not a good defender and he doesn't exactly have the body type that's going to age gracefully.

Guerrero has also had surprisingly limited success on the field. His career year back in 2021 came when the Jays played all of their "home" games in Dunedin, FL in a minor league ballpark. He had another strong season in 2024 but outside of that, it's mostly unrealized potential. He's a career .287/.362/.498 hitter, which is respectable. But his 17.0 fWAR since entering the league in 2019 is 40th among all qualified hitters. That's hardly reason to make him one of the highest paid players in the history of the sport.

If he's able to defy the odds and age gracefully, then the Jays will be better off for it. More likely is that he collapses in his 30's and Toronto is stuck with a Miguel Cabrera-esque albatross contract that they'll never be able to get rid of. That's fine, from an Orioles' fan's viewpoint.

But don't get it twisted, this deal likely does impact the Orioles more than we think. Gunnar Henderson is coming off an MVP-caliber year in 2024, and he was no slouch during his rookie year in 2023 either. We've seen calls from the fanbase for the O's to work out an extension with the 23 year old but after seeing Guerrero get an entire bank's worth of money almost entirely based on unrealized potential, it's tough to see how Henderson would be intrigued by anything less than that.

The difference is that Henderson still has four years of control before hitting free agency. A market value deal for him looks different than one for Guerrero because the O's would be buying out arbitration years and they would theoretically have to overpay for the back half of the deal to account for that. An extension around 15 years and $500 million wouldn't be an unreasonable ask, but there's no sign that the Orioles would entertain that kind of conversation at this point.

It's possible that the Orioles could get extensions done with some of their core. Guys like Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday might be had, for the right price. But with the way this Vladito saga played out and the financial reward he got at the end of it, it's tough to see the O's coming to terms on an extension with Henderson at any point in the near future.