The Athletic's latest contract predictions are way off base for the Orioles

This past offseason was a strange one for Orioles fans. While the team has rattled off back to back strong years, they've failed to win a single postseason game in that time, leaving the fanbase wanting more. On top of that, the front office seemingly sat on their hands this winter, watching Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander leave in free agency and replacing them with more budget friendly options.

It's possible that Mike Elias makes some shrewd moves during the season, especially considering that the Orioles are already suffering from the injury bug. Colton Cowser will miss between 6-8 weeks with a broken thumb, we have no idea when Grayson Rodriguez will return, and Kyle Bradish will be a question mark when he returns from Tommy John surgery later this year.

Padres' ace Dylan Cease was a popular offseason trade target but San Diego is all in on 2025 and they don't look like sellers, at least not yet. However, the lesser known righty Michael King is set to be a free agent next winter and even if the Orioles don't make a move for him in-season, a certain MLB insider seems to think Baltimore could be a potential destination for him.

Jim Bowden thinks Baltimore is a potential free agent destination for Padres' righty Michael King

It might feel a bit crazy to be talking about the winter of 2025-2026 already but here we are, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic is already going off the rails and making wild predictions. A couple of those predictions concern the Orioles but this one in particular has the Orioles going above and beyond for King, with Bowden suggesting a deal worth 5 years and $182 million.

Maybe it's just me but that feels like a ton of money for King. Don't get me wrong, he's been very good for a few years now. 2024 is his only year as a full time starter but he pitched to a 2.95 ERA in 173.2 innings last year. The two years prior he spent primarily as a reliever but still pitched to a combined 2.60 ERA in 155.2 innings. He does have a top 20% strikeout rate and has done very well to limit hard contact but even with his current production, it's still just one year as a dominant starting pitcher.

However, while I'm making the case against paying a guy $180 million for such a limited track record of success, the Red Sox have just gone out and given Garrett Crochet $172 million over 6 years, and he's thrown about 130 good innings total in his four year career. So maybe that's about the going rate for these types of guys.

If the Orioles are going to spend upwards of $200 million on a starting pitcher in free agency, one has to wonder if they can do better than Michael King. To be fair, the O's will only be able to sign the guys that are available, so there's only so much the team can do if they want to nab an ace on a long term deal. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Maybe King will come out and repeat his exceptional 2024 performance. If he does, the price is only going to go up.