4 difficult decisions the Orioles have to make this offseason

With the offseason just around the corner, the Orioles have a lot to think about before free agency kicks off. There are a few different areas of the roster that need attention, particularly the rotation and the need for another right handed bat in the lineup.

While the last two seasons have been steps in the right direction, you can definitely feel the pressure starting to build in Baltimore. Having David Rubenstein in charge will hopefully allow GM Mike Elias to be a bit more flexible in terms of using money to fix the roster. But Orioles fans as a whole seem to be getting antsy for success in the postseason.

In order to get there, Elias will have to make some deft decisions this offseason. Will they flex their financial muscles and bring back their star players set to hit free agency? Or will they try to trade any of their top prospects to acquire additional top talent? Here are four of the most difficult decisions Elias will face this winter, and how he might go about answering them.

How will the Orioles replace Corbin Burnes?

The trade to acquire Burnes was one of the better moves in recent memory. The O's came out as clear winners in the deal, as Burnes was one of the best starters in the league this year. While the O's didn't advance in the postseason, Burnes was everything they hoped he'd be, and more.

However, Burnes has been adamant about hitting free agency and his agent, Scott Boras, is known for milking every possible dollar out of the teams that sign his players. Experts have suggested that Burnes will earn north of $200 million in free agency. Looking at his performance, he'll likely be worth the cost when all is said and done. But will the Orioles be willing to pony up that kind of money to retain him?

Honestly, it doesn't seem like it. Elias isn't known for his willingness to spend above and beyond to acquire his guys, and Burnes will likely be the highest paid pitcher in free agency this winter. The most likely scenario seems like getting someone like Sonny Gray via trade. That way, the O's aren't locked into a long-term deal with a high-risk starter.

Will the Orioles pay to keep James McCann in Baltimore?

James McCann's future in Baltimore is closely tied to the Orioles' plan for Samuel Basallo. While the Orioles likely won't want to keep McCann at his current cost, they'll almost certainly be looking for an external option to back up Adley Rutschman at the start of 2025.

Basallo had succeeded at every level of the minors until his promotion to Triple-A toward the end of 2024. The phenom hit just .222/.267/.370 in 21 games with the Tides and any notion of him starting 2025 with the big league club mostly went out the window with that performance.

McCann has provided such strong leadership in the clubhouse that you'd think the O's would want to keep him around for as long as possible. But given that he was in the final year of a 4-year, $40 million deal, it's unclear if the O's will want to dish out the $6-$8 million that he'll likely cost.

If the O's are going to increase payroll as they've said they will, it makes sense to retain McCann. And it's likely the best path forward for the clubhouse, as well. Whether the front office feels the same remains to be seen.

Will Coby Mayo be on the trading block?

Coby Mayo has long been the talk of trade rumors. He absolutely mashed in Triple-A this year, to the point where some fans were thinking he was untouchable in trades. However, his performance during his major league debut has us reconsidering.

If the Orioles do move Mayo, it'll likely be for a significant piece coming back. Mayo is a top-10 prospect league-wide and even with the struggles in Baltimore, still projects as a strong major leaguer. But the Orioles are losing two big time pieces in Burnes and Anthony Santander to free agency this winter and Elias will have to find a way to replicate that lost production.

Moving Mayo in a deal to get a proven player might be the best move if Elias wants the Orioles to compete for a title in 2025. There's enough talent in the system behind Mayo, and the emergence of Jordan Westburg mitigates the need for the Orioles to use Mayo at third base. It might be wise to shop Mayo around in order to get a top-flight starting pitcher, maybe one of the Mariners guys if Jerry Dipoto is willing to deal.

What's the contingency plan for Jackson Holliday?

This one is cheating a bit because for now, it seems obvious that the Orioles will enter 2025 with Holliday in the starting lineup. However, the offense really can't tolerate the kind of production that the star prospect put up in 2024.

Holliday's debut didn't go as planned. Neither did his second trip to the majors, that lasted for most of the second half. All told, Holliday hit just .189/.255/.311 across 60 games, managing just 11 extra base hits in over 200 plate appearances. To be honest, we expected more from him. And while there's still time for him to turn his potential into true star power, the Orioles need it to happen sooner than later.

It feels fine for the Orioles to go into spring training and Opening Day with Holliday at second base. But if we get a couple months into the season and things aren't working out, the Orioles need to have a contingency plan in place. There are few good options in the system, outside of maybe Jorge Mateo, to take his place in the event Holliday needs to make a trip back to the minors. But the Orioles need to think about what their future looks like in the event that Holliday fails.