3 bold predictions for the 2025 Orioles season

Orioles fans rejoice, Opening Day has finally arrived. We've spent all offseason waiting for today's slate of games and we'll finally get our first taste of regular season baseball later this afternoon, as the Orioles are set to take on the Blue Jays for the first of a four-game set in Toronto.

Looking ahead, this team has high expectations this year. The O's have made back-to-back postseason appearances but have been swept out of October in both years. Given the recent postseason failures, the fanbase is rightly anxious about how the Birds will fare this season. Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander are both gone but that doesn't mean the O's are out of firepower. The offense should still be strong and there are reasons to believe in the pitching staff. Plus, we've yet to find a reason to distrust Mike Elias, given the success he's brought to Baltimore.

But how will the Orioles handle the challenge this year? We're optimistic about the O's chances and are excited to see how it plays out.

Here are three bold predictions for the 2025 Baltimore Orioles

Colton Cowser finishes top-5 in AL MVP voting

Colton Cowser flew under the radar in 2024. In his first full major league season, the then 24 year old hit .242/.321/.447 with 24 homers and 9 steals, and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Cowser's 13.6% barrel rate was in the top-10 percent of the league and did well to take advantage of the contact he made.

One big obstacle for Cowser is the strikeout rate. He whiffed over 30% of the time in 2024 but during spring training, that was a much lower 23.1%. He got a bit lucky on contact during the spring but there's reason to believe that entering his age 25 season, those plate discipline gains are real. If they are, something like .280/.360/.500 feels within reach. Add in his strong defense and he could find a way to push upwards of 7.0 fWAR and catapult himself into MVP discussion down the stretch.

Cade Povich leads the Orioles in innings pitched

This is not a slight against the guys he's up against in the rotation. Promise. This is about being all-in on Cade Povich stepping into the rotation from day one and pitching to the best of his ability all season. We've seen some of Povich's potential already. He took a major step forward at Triple-A last year and while his full major league stat line doesn't show it, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA with a 3.13 FIP in his final 5 starts, four of which came against teams fighting for postseason spots.

In addition to his success in the season's final month last year, Povich struck out 15 batters in 14.2 innings this spring, and allowed just 4 walks. The free passes were an issue during his first taste of Triple-A but he settled in 2024, especially in the second half. Povich threw a combined 157.1 innings last year, so there won't be any restrictions innings-wise. With Grayson Rodriguez already hurt, Charlie Morton into his 40's, and Tomoyuki Sugano having no track record in the majors, Povich could wind up being a catalyst for the Orioles in 2025 if he can stay healthy.

Keegan Akin leads the Orioles in saves

Unlike the case with Povich, the case for Keegan Akin leading the Orioles in saves is directly related to a personal disbelief in the guys seemingly ahead of him in the pecking order. Yes, Félix Bautista is back but his velocity was down in his first handful of outings and we know that the O's are going to have strict usage restrictions on him, at least through the first half. Seranthony Dominguez picked up the slack last year but man, I have a hard time seeing it.

Dominguez saved 10 games for the Orioles last fall but he's pitched to a 4.14 ERA with a 4.75 FIP across 108.2 innings across the last two years. He also posted an 11:5 strikeout to walk ratio in 6 innings this spring, and gave up an abysmal 13 runs in that span. He won't be saving games beyond April. Yennier Cano might get some chances in the early going but Akin was so good last year that it's easy to make the case that he's the most underrated pitcher the Orioles have right now.

Akin's line in 2024 was a 3.32 ERA with a 2.99 FIP and a 31% strikeout rate in 78.2 innings. He also had a 99th percentile 2.45 expected ERA and he did a great job limiting hard contact. There's reason to believe that Akin's success will carry over into 2025, and given the question marks with the rest of the bullpen, there's a scenario where Akin is both the best pitcher in the bullpen and getting a ton of save chances as the year goes on.