Mike Elias Confuses Baltimore Orioles Fan Base with 2020 Draft Picks

The MLB Draft concluded Thursday night, and Baltimore Orioles fans did not give their enthusiastic approval to the team’s six picks like they expected ahead of time.

Baltimore Orioles GM Mike Elias selected Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad 2nd overall, then Mississippi State SS Jordan Westburg in the 30 slot.

In the next rounds he chose: Tulane OF Hudson Haskin at 39, Ole Miss SS Anthony Servideo at 74, 3B Coby Mayo from MSD in Florida at 103, and RHP/3B Carter Baumler from Dowling Catholic in Iowa at 133.

At every single pick, Elias did something different than what scouts and analysts expected him to do.  Instead of taking the best available player in Austin Martin at the top of the draft (like I hoped he would), Elias decided to cut a deal.  Kjerstad is a great talent and an accomplished player, don’t get me wrong.  If my team got him at #10 I’d be thrilled.  But two and ten is a big difference at the top of the draft, and Kjerstad wasn’t even the best option for going underslot.

Let’s say we buy into going way below slot value with Kjerstad.  That means the plan is to take a high school pitcher at 30 or 39 who would demand more money, but instead Elias picked two college position players.  The Orioles wanted NIck Bitsko but he didn’t fall that far, and then there were rumors of taking Jared Kelley, but for some reason they passed on him and overdrafted Haskin.

I warned that going the underslot route might not leave the player they want, so not only do the Orioles not get Martin or Bitsko, but two rivals do.  The Oriole picks might work out, but Martin will kill O’s pitching for years as revenge.

Elias clearly followed the same strategy as last year by focusing on college position players, which sounds like a good thing because the 2019 class mostly had strong debuts.  But last year was a weak pitching class, and this year was a really deep one.  The Orioles had so many pitching options in the 30’s who were ranked higher and passed on all of them.  First round talent Cole Wilcox even dropped to the third and Elias still passed on him.  The moves just don’t seem to make much sense.

The draft honestly isn’t as bad as I have made it sound, because the front office went overslot elsewhere.  Mayo already signed for about $1.2 million more than his slot value, and Baumler said he plans to sign.  He is a true steal in the fifth round because teams thought he had a firm commitment to TCU.  I’m glad we got these guys, but I wanted a first round talent out of high school like Bitsko or Kelley.

Ignoring each individual draft position, the picks all have legitimate major league potential, beyond the obvious that they were drafted in the top five rounds.  Kjerstad has a ton of in-game power that will definitely translate to the next level.  I like accomplished college players and he is definitely one of them, leading Arkansas to the College World Series final in 2018.  The one concern is that his batting stance has a lot of moving parts, so strikeouts are already a problem.

Like Kjerstad, Westburg also strikes out at a pretty high rate but shows promise elsewhere.  As a versatile shortstop, he has above average speed, good range and can tap into some more power.  He may have to change positions as he gets stronger, but that’s why Elias takes so many shortstops so that they can spread around in the system.

Haskin also has 20/20 potential like Westburg, and he did nothing but hit at Tulane with a .372/.459/.647 line.  Because of his speed, Haskin may be able to stick in center, but a corner move is also possible.  He’ll advance quickly in his hitting and power continue to play in the minors.

Servideo is a bigger question after a bad summer in the Cape Cod league raised concerns about whether he can hit in more advanced settings.  He got off to a good start this year with a bit of power so maybe he figured something out.  Either way, his defense is what stands out and should keep him consistently on the field.

More from Orioles Draft

• Orioles Conclude MLB Draft with Some Intrigue and Risk
• Orioles Go for Depth on Day Two of Draft with Eight Picks
• Orioles Draft Dylan Beavers in Competitive Balance Round
• Baltimore Orioles: Draft Day One Recap and Analysis
• Draft Round Table: Who Should the Orioles Take First?

Drafting a high schooler is obviously a riskier move, especially in the middle rounds.  Mayo has shown good raw power and one of the very best throwing arms in the draft, but his other tools are lacking.  As he gets older, there’s a good chance he’ll have to switch to first or the outfield, but hopefully his power shows up in games.

Baumler might be the most exciting pick because along with being a draft steal, he also had football scholarship offers as a kicker.  He is currently a two-way player but will likely focus on pitching, which is good because the Orioles didn’t draft any others.  He has a low- to mid-90’s fastball and a plus curveball, so there is clearly something to work with.

I am skeptical about this draft class, but we all know it’s too early to judge whether these are good picks or not.  What matters now is that the front office believes in these players, and they’ve done more scouting than any of us.  All of this is to say that Mike Elias might be a baseball genius, but we just don’t know it yet.