Baltimore Orioles: Richard Bleier is an ideal trade candidate

The Baltimore Orioles have few tradeable assets left on the roster after the big sell-off last July. Lefty Richard Bleier could be one of the first to go this summer

When the 2019 trade deadline hits, the Baltimore Orioles are unlikely to be big players in the market. Mark Trumbo is expected to be moved, and the Orioles could potentially find a trade partner for Alex Cobb and Mychal Givens, but the big names have already been moved. However, the Orioles might have a low-key trade chip in Richard Bleier.

Early in his career, Bleier struggled to get out of the minors, repeating Double-A six times between the Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Yankees organizations. But when he made his major league debut in New York at age 29, he capitalized on the opportunity.

In 2016, Bleier threw 23 innings for the Yankees and pitched to a 1.96 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. The Orioles acquired him before the 2017 season and he’s spent the past two years in Baltimore.

Bleier pitched a full season in 2017 for the Orioles – 63.1 innings with a 1.99 ERA. He came into 2018 with similar expectations and for the first three months of the season, pitched to them. In 32.2 innings last year, Bleier had a 1.93 ERA, though his 1.22 WHIP was a career high to that point.

Bleier’s season was cut short after suffering a grade-3 lat tear in June, which required surgery and a lengthy rehab process. He’s on track to return to Baltimore by Opening Day, and will enter 2019 as one of the only pitchers in the Orioles’ bullpen with a track record of success.

Will Bleier stay healthy enough for the Orioles to move him?

Bleier hasn’t been injury prone to this point in his career, but the lat injury is a serious one and requires extensive time and patience. If Bleier can indeed come back and give the Orioles four months of work, he’ll be tradeable.

Will Bleier be good enough for the Orioles to move him?

To this point, Bleier has seemingly out-pitched his talent level and advanced metrics. The career 1.97 ERA comes with a 2.67 FIP, and the run estimators look even worse (SIERA – 3.80, xFIP – 4.16).

Part of that is because Bleier is a soft-tossing sinker-baller who pitches to contact and doesn’t strike anyone out. His sinker tops out at 89 mph and his cutter sits at 86 mph, which are both below average. Plus, he has a career 11% strikeout rate, which is scary-low for a reliever.

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But Bleier has made it work. He’s done a great job limiting home-runs; he didn’t allow a homer in 45.2 combined innings in 2016 and 2018, and he had a 14% HR/FB rate in 2017. And he’s done well inducing weak contact (career 20.3% soft contact rate). We know both of those things are skill-based for pitchers.

Bleier is still under team control in 2019 making the league minimum (~$575,000), and he becomes arbitration eligible in 2020. He likely won’t get more than a couple million in arbitration, but it’s all the more reason for the Orioles to move him this year – we all know how teams like to save a buck when they can.

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The Orioles won’t get a rated prospect back if they trade Bleier, but they can likely get a depth piece for him. Moving him would open up a spot in the Baltimore bullpen and allow someone like Evan Phillips or Cody Carroll to step into the role, and allow the Orioles to move forward with their rebuild.

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