Baltimore Orioles: Immediate reactions to 2019 Steamer projections

The Baltimore Orioles are bad. They’re likely to continue to be so, at least into the foreseeable future. Steamer’s 2019 projections confirm this, but we’re excited about them nonetheless.

The Baltimore Orioles have a handful of players on the 40-man roster who may not be there when Spring Training starts, but Steamer doesn’t mind. There are Steamer projections for 19 Orioles players at the major league level, but they’re looking grim.

We know that the Orioles will be a bad baseball team next year. We also know that almost everyone on the 2018 roster performed under their projections. Will positive regression help the Orioles in 2019? Steamer doesn’t seem to think so.

Steamer has three Orioles projected as “full-time” players, with over 140 games and 600 PA’s.

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Cedric Mullins will be the Orioles everyday center fielder in 2019. Steamer has him with a .312 wOBA, a .720 OPS, and 1.7 fWAR in 640 plate appearances. Mullins should be able to add value on the basepaths, and he’s got an outside chance at a 20/20 season.

Jonathan Villar will either be the everyday shortstop or second baseman in 2019, and Steamer projects him to post a .309 wOBA, .708 OPS, and 1.2 fWAR in 628 PA’s. Similar to Mullins, Villar will provide value with his base running, and if he’s at second base, he profiles as an above average defender there.

Trey Mancini doesn’t have a position as of yet, but it seems likely that with the return of Mark Trumbo, Mancini will move to left field full time. Steamer projects him at a .326 wOBA, a .759 OPS, and 0.9 fWAR in 615 PA’s. Mancini is a poor defensive outfielder, so his WAR projections take a hit because of that However, he’s one of only two Orioles players projected to provide positive offensive value.

There are four players projected over 500 plate appearances, though there are questions surrounding three of them, and one might not make the 2019 roster.

Mark Trumbo spent too much time in 2018 on the disabled list, and will look to remain healthy throughout 2019, which is the final year of his contract. Steamer projects Trumbo for a .324 wOBA, a .757 OPS, and 0.4 fWAR in 572 PA’s. Similar to Mancini, Trumbo provides no defensive value, but is the one other Oriole who’s projected to provide plus-value on the offensive side.

Chris Davis is a wildcard here; Steamer has him for a .302 wOBA, a 36% strikeout rate, and -0.1 fWAR in 527 PA’s. But we don’t know if he’ll be given the benefit of the doubt like he was last year. I’d take the under on Davis’ plate appearance projections, as the new front office will likely have a pretty short leash with him.

We don’t know if Tim Beckham will be tendered a contract this offseason, but Steamer has projections for him anyway. Steamer sees Beckham with a .303 wOBA and a .699 OPS. Improvements though they are on his 2018 numbers, those are still very poor projections for the shortstop.

Lastly, Steamer has Renato Nunez as the primary third baseman for the Orioles in 2019, with a .310 wOBA, a .717 OPS, and a team-high 1.8 fWAR. Nunez could provide plus defense at third and prove to be a stopgap between now and Ryan Mountcastle. It’s doubtful we see Mountcastle in 2019 for service time reasons, so Nunez should have a chance to be an impact player for the Orioles.

On the downside only two players, Trumbo (104 wRC+) and Mancini (105 wRC+), are projected to provide above average offensive value. However, though the two are projected as the team’s best offensive players, they’re also projected to be the Orioles’ worst defenders.

2019 is shaping up to be a tough one for the Orioles. The hot stove is heating up, with the GM meetings underway in Carlsbad, CA this week, but the Orioles don’t have their new front office in place; interim GM Brian Graham is representing the Orioles in California.

Next. How the Rule 5 draft could impact the roster. dark

Maybe the Orioles can provide some excitement in the offseason with a couple unexpected moves.

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