Zach Eflin's expedited recovery comes with an uncomfortable conversation

Whether or not Zach Eflin returns in time for opening day or it takes another week or so, he'll be back very soon. His return comes with an uncomfortable question: Which of the Baltimore Orioles starters will go to the bullpen when all six of them are healthy?

Over the course of a 162-game season, the Orioles will at some point need all six of their starters. In fact, they'll also probably need guys like Cade Povich and Brandon Young to make a couple of starts at some point, and they also hope that their top pitching prospect, Trey Gibson, forces his way into the rotation at some point as well.

At some point, injury and underperformance will make the answer clear, but early in the season, when everyone is as healthy as they'll be all year and with everyone starting from zero from a performance standpoint, the decision of who goes to the pen will have to be a judgment call, a tough judgment call.

The Orioles have six guys for five spots in the rotation. Who will be left out in the cold?

The easiest thing would be for the Orioles to send Eflin to the pen. He's coming back from injury, he's the free agent on the cheapest contract, and he's pitched out of the bullpen before. However, there are a few reasons why that's easier said than done.

Reason number one is that, over the past few years, when Eflin has been healthy, he's been better than Kremer, Bassitt, and Baz. When your job is to put the best team on the field, it's a little bit silly to put potentially your third-best starter in the bullpen to avoid having an uncomfortable conversation. The other issue is the contract Eflin signed

A third of Eflin's possible contract value is tied up in incentives based on games started. He has a $2.5 million incentive for reaching 25 starts; all it would take is a month on bullpen duty, and that becomes unreachable. It could be a bad look for the Orioles to sign Eflin to an incentive-based contract and then not give him a chance to hit those incentives.

Kremer, being the other option, is tricky for a different reason. Over the past 4 seasons, nobody has thrown more innings for the Orioles than Kremer. He's been their workhorse, and he's been a starter the whole time. Pushing him to the bullpen just seems like a tough thing to do to a pitcher who has been so consistent. Especially considering the fact that the guys remaining in the rotation are not that much better than him. It would be one thing for Kremer to get pushed out by Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez, but getting pushed out by Bassitt and Baz? Oof.

Bassitt and Baz could technically also be moved to the bullpen, but the costs the Orioles paid to bring them in are just too high for that to really be an option. They're not paying Bassitt $18.5 million to be a swingman out of the pen, and they didn't trade four prospects for Baz to stick him in the pen either. It's just not going to happen.

A six-man rotation could also be on the table, but that seems like an unlikely route for the Orioles to go. Besides the fact that starters generally hate it, a six-man rotation means a heavier load for the bullpen, and looking at the Orioles' bullpen, that's not a group ready to take on a heavy load. Plus, the Orioles ' early-season schedule is saturated with off days, so there would be no real benefit.