Orioles seeing early signs that their Zach Eflin gamble could pay off

Last season did not go the way Zach Eflin hoped. In a contract season, he played through a debilitating back injury that was causing him pain on and off the mound. The injury impacted his performance, causing him to have his worst season since his second year in Philadelphia. Between the injury and the poor performance in 2025, Eflin did not have a robust market in free agency and ended up coming back to the Baltimore Orioles on a one-year prove-it deal for just $10 million.  

At that price, there is very little risk for the Orioles, but if Eflin bounces back and looks like the pitcher he was from 2023 to 2024, then he might be the best value deal of the offseason. The good news for Orioles fans is that Eflin made his spring training debut this week, and early returns suggest that he may, in fact, be back.

A healthy Zach Eflin to start the season would make a big difference for the Orioles

In his first spring training start, Eflin went two innings, surrendering only one hit and one walk with three strikeouts. More important than the on-field results is how the pitches looked.

Eflin has never been someone who relied on velocity. When he was rolling in 2023, his four-seam fastball only sat at 93.1 mph, and his sinker sat at 92.2. Last season, amid the back injury, the four-seam was down to 92 mph, and the sinker was down to 91.7. On his breaking pitches, the spin was down as well. The curveball and sweeper averaged a 32 rpm drop in spin from 2024 to 2025.

These may not seem like drastic changes, but Eflin is on the lower end of velo and stuff, and he likes to pound the zone. Losing a tick or even a half tick on his fastballs and seeing a decline in stuff on his breaking pitches pushed him over the edge. His stuff went from good enough to be in the zone, not good enough to be in the zone, and the results followed.

Even though Eflin's still rehabbing and building up this spring, the statcast data from his first start showed that his fastball velo was up and he saw a spin increase of 50+ rpms on four different pitches.

Eflin still isn't going to blow anyone away with his 93 mph fastball, but with his stuff up to "good enough to be in the zone" level, he should return to being the pitcher the Orioles traded for at the 2024 deadline. The guy who started his Orioles career with nine straight starts of 5+ innings and less than three earned runs. The guy who started game two of a playoff game for the Orioles. That guy is worth a lot more than 10 million or even the 15 million Eflin would get if he reaches 25 starts.