Why the Orioles’ soft May schedule is a curse

The Baltimore Orioles haven’t just stumbled out of the gate in 2025 — they have practically face planted. Mired by injuries to their starting rotation and stuck in a holding pattern while waiting on reinforcements, the O's find themselves at the bottom of the AL East. And while the trade deadline is still months away, Baltimore’s passive approach could dig them into a hole too deep to climb out of.

At the moment, the Orioles are chasing the Yankees, and the Red Sox aren’t too far behind them. Both are building on early cushions at the top of the division. If Baltimore wants to get back in the mix, the month of May might be their only real opportunity to regroup — and they desperately need to take advantage of it.

The schedule is finally softening — or so it seems. Six of the Orioles’ nine opponents this month are currently sitting below .500, including struggling squads like the Twins (twice), the Royals, and a confusing Angels team that’s better than their record appears but still highly beatable. The problem? The Orioles have a worse record than five of them.

The Orioles need to capitalize on a soft May schedule before it’s too late

Baltimore opens the month with a three-game set against Kansas City. The Royals are also riddled with injuries and lineup inconsistencies, yet still come into the series winning nine out of their last ten. The O's will also face the Twins, a team seemingly allergic to winning baseball games despite having Jhoan Duran — arguably the most electric closer in baseball. And they've already dropped a series to a pesky Nationals team that held the O’s to just four runs across three games. Matchups like these were supposed to be breathing room for the Orioles. Instead, they’re shaping up as real tests.

At the core of Baltimore’s struggles is a startling run differential: -46. That number includes a 24-run shellacking at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds. Even without that outlier, the team’s inability to keep pace offensively or keep opponents off the scoreboard is glaringly obvious.

The Orioles' uphill climb starts with a patchwork rotation that’s been showing serious cracks. Tomoyuki Sugano leads the staff with a respectable 3.00 ERA, but his 5.66 expected ERA (xERA) raises a red flag — suggesting he's been more lucky than dominant with imminent regression right around the corner. Behind him, it really gets worse. Cade Povich has been erratic, posting a 5.16 ERA, while veteran Charlie Morton (recently demoted) has been nothing short of disastrous, sitting at 0-6 with a 9.45 ERA. Dean Kremer hasn’t fared much better, struggling to keep runs off the board with an inflated 7.04 ERA before his start Friday.

Despite all the blunders, the Orioles seem intent on sticking with Kyle Gibson over allowing promising prospect Brandon Young to fight it out at the big league level. And while Zach Eflin is expected to return later this month, one arm alone won’t be enough to stabilize a rotation that’s been one of the league’s weakest so far.

So while the schedule may look like a lifeline, it’ll only matter if Baltimore’s pitching can get it together. They don’t need to dominate — but they do need to keep them in games. This month is less about the quality of the competition and more about whether the Orioles can rise to meet the moment.

However, if they can’t take advantage of this month’s schedule, July’s trade deadline might come too late to save them.