This one stat might be Tomoyuki Sugano's undoing in 2025

The Baltimore Orioles may be flirting with contender status, but their early-season pitching woes are impossible to ignore. A team once brimming with promise now finds itself leaning on a thin foundation — one that’s held together by Zach Eflin and a 35-year-old MLB rookie making his first tour around the majors.

Signed out of Japan this offseason after 12 impressive years with the Yomiuri Giants, Sugano was expected to serve as a stable presence near the back of the Orioles’ rotation. He arrived with a polished resume — one that included elite walk rates (1.7 BB/9) and solid strikeout totals in Nippon Professional Baseball (7.7 K/9). But even as the Orioles bet on experience and command, concerns lingered about how Sugano’s game would translate against Major League hitters.

Through his first four starts, the results on paper appear encouraging. A 2–1 record and a 3.43 ERA. But beneath those stats, there are cracks deep in the foundation.

Can Tomoyuki Sugano keep the mask on his pitches

While Sugano’s ERA might suggest he's thriving in his first month stateside, the advanced metrics tell a different story — one that Orioles fans and the front office can’t afford to ignore.

Sugano has allowed 22 hits in 21 innings and carries a 1.29 WHIP, placing him in the lower half of all qualified starters. More alarming, though, is his strikeout rate. A 3.43 K/9 leaves Sugano ranked dead last among the 88 qualified MLB starters — a massive red flag in today’s swing-and-miss dominated game. His inability to miss bats at a high level is a recipe for danger, especially in the AL East.

Then there's his expected ERA (xERA), which paints a more honest picture of how he's truly pitched — a jarring 6.42. That number ranks in the bottom 9% of all qualified starters, suggesting that Sugano has been more lucky than actually good so far.

What Sugano lacks in power, he tries to make up for in precision and pitch variety. His six-pitch arsenal has been key to his early deception, with none being thrown more than 23 percent of the time. His most-used pitch is the splitter, followed by a sweeper, four-seamer, cutter, and sinker, all hovering in a balanced range. Even his curveball — his least-used offering — shows up 13 percent of the time to keep batters guessing.

Another issue is that none of these pitches exceed 93 mph. In a velocity driven league, Sugano’s approach demands pinpoint command and the ability to disrupt timing consistently. The moment he falls behind in counts or misses his spots, his margin for error disappears — and major league hitters will make him pay.

Orioles fans are right to root for Sugano’s success. At 35, he brings a refreshing maturity and methodical approach to a staff in need of stability. But for all the poise and polish, there’s no denying the risk that lies in front of them. If his command falters or hitters begin to sit on his secondary pitches, Sugano could be in for a rough regression.

For a team that entered the season with postseason aspirations, Baltimore can’t afford to treat Sugano’s current ERA as a comfort blanket. They’ll need reinforcements, or a sudden emergence from within, to avoid spiraling further into the danger zone.