Twins payroll crunch could gift Orioles the perfect rotation piece

The Baltimore Orioles might find that the most fruitful way to solve their starting pitching woes is through the trade market. In free agency, they'll have to contend with deep-pocketed rivals like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets, among others.

However, via trade, their collection of young talent might win out. Graduations have taken a toll on Baltimore's ranking, but there are still plenty of attractive chips in the system, as well as some young big leaguers who could be moved in the pursuit of an ace. Most of their chief competitors will have a hard time matching what the Orioles can offer up.

One team that stands out as a potential match is the Minnesota Twins. On the field, the Twins' rise to contention stalled out with their core of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and an impressive collection of bullpen arms. On the business side, the franchise is marred by debt and a failed bid by the Pohlad family to sell the team.

Minnesota already sold off Correa and relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax at the trade deadline, and that sell-off is set to continue this offseason with starters Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez rumored to be on the block. Ryan has gotten the lion's share of the attention, but Lopez could be the Orioles' best option.

Twins starter Pablo Lopez could be the perfect rotation solution for the Orioles

Lopez and Ryan are both 29-year-old right-handers with top-of-the-rotation resumes. Both come with two years of control, but that's where the differences truly begin. Ryan is entering his second go-around in arbitration, while Lopez is entering year three of a four-year, $73.5 million extension he signed ahead of the 2024 season.

That difference in cost, Lopez will make $21.75 million in 2026, versus a projected salary of around $6 million for Ryan, will have an outsized impact on what it would take to land either ace.

Lopez was on his way to posting the best season of his career with a 2.74 ERA over 14 starts and 75.2 innings before a forearm injury prematurely ended his season. Despite the injury, he's reported to be fully healthy and able to participate fully in all offseason activities.

Prior to 2025, Lopez had been the picture of durability, making 32 starts per year from 2022 through 2024, logging at least 180 innings each season with a high of 194 coming in 2023. A career 3.81 ERA might not peg him as one of the most dominant aces on the market, but given his track record and reduced cost thanks to his relatively hefty extension, he might be the best value.

An Orioles rotation featuring Lopez, Grayson Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers, and Dean Kremer should be sufficient to contend, and the Orioles would still have enough prospect capital left over to swing a trade for bullpen help if they desired.

While most of the other teams shopping aces this offseason are looking to contend, the Twins are putting their rebuild into overdrive, making them the best place for Baltimore to look as they move to strengthen the rotation without opening up other holes in the process. Of all the Twins have to offer, Lopez's track record could set him apart as the best option.