This Orioles breakout candidate could be everything Mike Elias needs

In 2024, the Baltimore Orioles pulled off a blockbuster trade, swapping two prospects and a comp pick for Cy Young-winning pitcher Corbin Burnes. It was a near-perfect trade; the prospects the Orioles moved were either blocked from playing time or had troubling injury histories, and they knew that if Burnes walked, they'd get that comp pick right back. Burnes, for his part, pitched like a true ace for the Orioles, putting up a 2.92 ERA in 194.1 innings and capping off his Orioles career with eight innings of one-run ball in his only playoff start before leaving in free agency.

Ever since then, the Orioles have not been able to find a way to acquire that true number one starter they had with Burnes. Last season, they tried to replace Burnes in the aggregate with a group of veteran starters, and that went worse than anyone could have possibly predicted.

Mike Elias needs Shane Baz to be the ace the Orioles couldn't get this offseason

After watching the Orioles go down in flames as a direct result of the front office's failure to build a pitching staff, fans and media alike assumed there was no way the Orioles would dare repeat the process that led to such an embarrassing season. All offseason, there were predictions and rumors tying the Orioles to Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez and multiple mock trades suggesting they might pursue Freddy Peralta or Mackenzie Gore.

In the end, what the Orioles did to put together their rotation this offseason looks a lot like what they did to put together their rotation last offseason. Chris Bassitt fills in for Charlie Morton, the veteran who isn't what he used to be but still gets by. Zach Eflin fills the Kyle Gibson role, the familiar face the Orioles reunite with on a cheap contract. There are reasons to be more optimistic about Bassitt and Eflin as a duo vs Morton and Gibson, but the similarities are there.

The main difference between this offseason's rotation additions and last offseason's rotation additions is Shane Baz, whose 2025 counterpart would be Tomoyuki Sugano; those two acquisitions are not very similar at all.

Baz brings an upside to the Orioles rotation that nobody they acquired last offseason could offer. He was a former first-round pick, he excelled in the minors, became a top prospect, and when he debuted in 2021 for the Rays, it seemed like they had successfully churned out another top-tier Cy Young caliber arm, the way they had with Snell, Glasnow, and Shane McClanahan. Injuries derailed his progress, and although he returned to pitch a full season in 2025, the results lagged, and he is now officially post-hype.

The hype around Baz as a potential top of the rotation arm might be gone, but the talent that made evaluators believe in him is still there, and even as he struggled through his first full season back from injury, that talent was apparent.

His home/road splits in 2025 show that when he wasn't pitching in a minor league ballpark, he was a demonstrably better pitcher. His away ERA of 3.86 was a full two runs lower than his home ERA of 5.90. His xFIP at home and away was very similar, indicating he was consistent, but the results varied drastically depending on his environment.

Last season, Stuff+ had four of his five pitches rated above average, and his knuckle curve ranked among the best in baseball. In spring training with the Orioles, Baz is reworking his arsenal to further strengthen it. It appears they're having him stay away from his slider, which he struggled to command in 2025, and having him work on a two-seam fastball to give him an additional weapon against righties.

Pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment, having some new pitches in the arsenal, and being another year distanced from major injury is a good recipe for a breakout. If Baz can pull it all together and fulfill his potential, then the Orioles might have successfully acquired a number one starter after all, and this one would be around for a couple of years.