Ryan Mountcastle's jaw-dropping home run could be a sign of a big comeback in 2025

On Tuesday, March 11, Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle made his mark in spring training, launching his first home run of the preseason against the New York Yankees, an opposite-field shot over the right-field wall. Clearly in the mood for more, he followed up the next day with an even bigger shot, a towering blast to left field that not only cleared the wall but left the entire ballpark.

At 28 years old, Mountcastle remains a steady presence at first base, but his past two seasons have been marked by challenges out of his control. After making his debut in 2020 and playing 35 games, he delivered a breakout rookie campaign in 2021, smashing 33 home runs, driving in 89 runs, and posting a 114 OPS+.

He followed that up with a solid 2022, maintaining his consistency at the plate, though his power numbers dipped, finishing with 22 homers and 85 RBIs over 145 games. Despite the statistical decline, his overall impact on the field continued to grow, with his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) increasing each season since his debut.

However, injuries played a frustrating role in both 2023 and 2024, limiting his ability to fully capitalize on his potential. Before going down with an injury in August last season, Mountcastle was on pace for a career-best year in RBIs, thriving in the middle of a loaded Orioles lineup. Now, as he steps into 2025, there’s every reason to believe he could be on the verge of a breakout campaign.

Will Ryan Mountcastle's power surge return in 2025?

Adding to the optimism is a significant development at Camden Yards. The Orioles' ownership recently acknowledged that moving the left-field wall back in 2022 may have been an over-correction. In response, they plan to adjust the dimensions again in 2025, returning the wall to a more of what they call a “happy medium”, a change that would undoubtedly be more hitter-friendly than the previous three seasons.

For Mountcastle, that’s great news, as the right-handed slugger saw his home run total decline despite maintaining a nearly identical slash line. It’s clear the deeper left-field fence had an impact on his power numbers.

With the wall moving back in his favor, a stacked Orioles lineup around him, and his production trending upward, Mountcastle is in a prime position to deliver the best season of his career, if he can stay healthy. Should he avoid the injury bug, 2025 could be the year he shatters the triple-digit mark in RBIs and solidifies himself as a force in the middle of Baltimore’s order. Only time, and health will tell.