Recent Mets' trade shows that it isn't worth it for the Orioles to consider moving Trevor Rogers

The Baltimore Orioles and the New York Mets feel connected this season. The Orioles signed Mets franchise legend Pete Alonso this offseason, along with Mets franchise villain Ryan Helsley. Both teams are led by former Astros executives who came up under the now-infamous baseball executive Jeff Luhnow. Watching how both teams operate, you can see similarities. Unfortunately for both teams, one of the similarities they share is that they are both having very disappointing seasons. Last night, the Mets, after getting manhandled by the Cubs in a doubleheader, got started early on their inevitable deadline sell-off by trading starter David Peterson.

The Orioles are a little closer to the playoff picture than the Mets are but with how they've played over the last few weeks it's hard to imagine them climbing over the five teams ahead of them in the standings to steal a playoff spot and if the trends of the past few weeks copntinue they'll soon find themselves having to think about which players they will be selling off at this year's deadline.

The Orioles are better off holding onto Trevor Rogers

One of the players the Orioles have to think about moving will be starting pitcher Trevor Rogers, who started for the Orioles on opening day and is in the last year of his contract. That makes him a prime candidate to be moved as a rental starter at the deadline.

The Mets getting the party started early and moving Peterson now gives the Orioles a window into what they might expect in return for Rogers.

Like Rogers, Peterson is a left-handed starting pitcher who is a free agent at the end of this season. Both Rogers and Peterson are having much worse years than their peak seasons. For Rogers, that was last year when he pitched to a 1.81 ERA in 109 innings, and for Peterson, that was 2024 when he pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 121 innings. Both Rogers and Peterson are command over stuff pitchers who rely on being able to mix up a wide arsenal and hitting spots to be effective.

Looking at how their stuff grades out and the overall results over the last few years, if you had to pick one to have on your team, you'd rather have Rogers, but there is not a world of difference between these two pitchers.

In return for Peterson, the Mets received Cubs' prospect Cole Mathis. Mathis was the Cubs ' second-round pick in 2024 and has dealt with a variety of injuries that have impeded his progress through the minors. Despite being a college draft pick from two years ago, he has only just reached high-A this season. To his credit, he has put up good numbers, but he is currently injured again.

Maybe the Mets scouts love Mathis, and they wanted him more than anyone else in the system, but an injury-prone prospect that just barely reached high-A in his age-23 season is not a slam-dunk return. It's more of an "at least they got something" return.

As mentioned, Rogers has been better than Peterson this year and last year, but his multitude of blow-up starts resulting in his 5.30 ERA have harmed his trade value. Even if a team is very interested in getting Rogers in the door, they're going to posture as if his results this season are too disgusting to bear.

If the market for Rogers is at all similar to the market for Peterson, then the Orioles should not be interested in moving Rogers at this deadline. They would be much better off keeping him for the rest of the year and then offering him the QO so that if he signs somewhere else, they get a compensation pick, and if he picks it up, they get another year of Rogers. It also shouldn't be out of the equation that Rogers and the Orioles work out a deal this offseason that keeps him in Baltimore for several more years. Any of these options would be better than flipping Rogers for some teams' #10 prospect.

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