Projected Orioles Opening Day lineup includes a truly bizarre wrinkle at the top

There are spring-training projections, and then there’s whatever this is. Bleacher Report’s latest Orioles lineup guess has Colton Cowser leading off, followed by Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. It’s the kind of tweak that looks harmless on a graphic, then starts feeling like a self-inflicted headache the moment you think about who’s losing plate appearances.

And look, Cowser is athletic, he can run, and he’s a left-handed bat you can talk yourself into as a table-setter. But for Baltimore, it’s a truly bizarre wrinkle because it asks the Orioles to ignore the one thing their lineup shouldn’t be messing with: clarity.

Orioles’ projected leadoff plan feels like a weird overthink nobody asked for

If the Orioles are serious about squeezing every win out of a stacked young core — while navigating early injury turbulence — the top of the order is supposed to be the easy part. MLB.com’s projected lineup for Baltimore has Henderson leading off (which is what a normal, functional baseball team does), with Rutschman right there as the heartbeat behind him and Cowser much lower. That version reads like a team that understands its identity: Henderson is the spark, Rutschman is the stabilizer, and the rest can rotate based on matchups without touching the ignition switch.

And that’s exactly why the Cowser-at-the-top idea is such a strange self-inflicted detour. Even if you bake in the broken left thumb and the stop-start nature of his 2025, the profile just doesn’t scream “table-setter”: 92 games, a .196 average, a .269 OBP, and 128 strikeouts in 360 plate appearances. 

Yes, the power/speed is real — 16 homers and 14 steals in limited time is legit juice — and the defense plays (his arm was graded in the 93rd percentile). But that’s the point: Cowser’s value is best deployed as an impact piece who can change an inning, not as the guy you’re asking to reliably start one by simply getting on base. 

The B/R version flips that script and basically dares the Orioles to get cute. Because Cowser leading off only works if Cowser is getting on base like a leadoff hitter. If he’s not, the Orioles are voluntarily taking plate appearances away from Henderson — the guy who should be at the center of every “maximize run expectancy” conversation in that clubhouse. And when you’re also juggling a lineup impacted by injuries, the last thing you need is a self-inflicted OBP experiment at the very top.

What makes it feel even weirder is that the “why” is so easy to solve without overthinking it. If you want a lefty look early, you don’t have to force it at leadoff. If you want speed in front of your boppers, Henderson already gives you that while also being your best bet to start rallies. If you want Cowser to impact games, you can do it in the bottom third, where his pop, legs, and defense play without forcing him to wear a role that should be earned, not assigned.

Could Cowser ever grow into a leadoff type? Sure. Spring is for trying things, and lineup creativity is fine when it’s tethered to a real strength.

But if this is truly the Orioles’ Opening Day plan, it’s not bold. It’s unnecessarily stubborn, and it would be a very Orioles way to complicate a lineup that should be terrifying pitchers from pitch one.