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Predicting the Orioles' leaders in every key pitching statistic in 2024

With Opening Day right around the corner, which pitchers are going to lead the staff in the major statistical categories?

By Justin Long |
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The Baltimore Orioles' pitching staff looks like one of the best in baseball coming into this season, with extremely high expectations abounding for the group. Here's a prediction of which pitchers will lead the team in wins, innings, ERA (both bullpen and starter), strikeouts, saves and WHIP.

2024 Baltimore Orioles Projected Pitching Leaders

Innings: Corbin Burnes

Burnes was the big-ticket acquisition by Mike Elias this offseason, and he immediately steps in as the ace of this staff. This won't be the last time you see Burnes on this list, and it stands to reason he is the clear-cut favorite to lead the team in innings. Burnes has recorded 193.2 innings and 202 innings over the past two seasons, which would've led the Orioles in both years.

Out of the returning starters from last season, Dean Kremer was the closest to matching Burnes' innings totals. However, he still only threw 172.2 innings in 2023. If Burnes can stay healthy for the whole season (something he has done each of the past two years), it'll be hard to imagine anyone surpassing his innings total in 2024.

Wins: Dean Kremer

Wins are very hard to predict for starters, because hurlers can't control the run support they get. All complications considered, the win leader for the Orioles will ultimately come down to three pitchers: Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez or Corbin Burnes. These three starters should be in the rotation throughout the whole season (barring an injury), so they will have the most chances to rack up some wins.

Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles / Brandon Sloter/GettyImages

Kremer had the second-most wins on the Orioles last season with 13, trailing only Kyle Gibson (15). The Orioles scored a lot of runs for Kremer last season, and he had a knack for getting deep into games. This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but it shouldn't shock anyone if he leads the O's in wins this season.

Starter ERA: Grayson Rodriguez

This may be a bold prediction due to the surrounding talent in the rotation, but given his talent level, Rodriguez will lead the staff in ERA this season. Rodriguez is poised for a breakout year after a tremendous second half in 2023. The young starter has the makeup of a true ace, with his dominant pitch arsenal and aggressive pitching mentality. Not to mention, he's brought a new pitch to his repertoire with the addition of a two-seam fastball.

Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.35 last season, but that was inflated due to his first-half struggles. His ERA in the second half of the year was below 3.00, and that could certainly be the pitcher we are going to get going forward. Corbin Burnes could challenge Rodriguez for this spot, and Kyle Bradish would've also received consideration if it weren't for his current injury status.

WHIP: Corbin Burnes

The highest WHIP that Corbin Burnes has had in the last four seasons was 1.07, and he recorded a WHIP below 1.00 in two of those seasons. Not to mention, opponents haven't hit over .200 against him in any of those seasons either. Pretty simply, Corbin Burnes doesn't allow hitters to get on base at a consistent clip.

If we are making this call purely based on past success, it's hard to argue for anyone else other than Burnes. However, one name I'll throw out there is Tyler Wells. He was leading MLB in WHIP for a substantial stretch last season before he was set back with arm fatigue.

Strikeouts: Grayson Rodriguez

If the aforementioned Grayson Rodriguez breakout does happen, it could result in some huge strikeout numbers. As previously mentioned, he has electric stuff that's only going to get better as he gains more experience at the major league level. Last season, Rodriguez struck out over 9.5 batters per 9 innings, resulting in 129 strikeouts in total.

Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two
Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two / Patrick Smith/GettyImages

It seems fair to expect the strikeout numbers for Rodriguez to only go up from here. If he racks up a lot of innings (which he showed he was capable of in the second half last season), he could record over 200 strikeouts.

Bullpen ERA: Dillon Tate

I'm going to get bold again. Dillon Tate missed all of 2023 due to injury, but he is healthy now and will almost certainly make the Opening Day roster. The Orioles bullpen will be without their best arm in Felix Bautista, so guys like Dillon Tate, Yennier Cano, and Cionel Perez will have to step up.

The last time we saw Tate pitch, he was fantastic. He posted a 3.05 ERA in 2022 with a sub-1.00 WHIP in over 70 innings. He has great stuff, and he had a very strong spring training. He pitched six innings, allowing zero runs, and had a WHIP of just 0.33. This prediction could very well backfire, but mark it down: Tate is going to have a career year in 2024.

Saves: Craig Kimbrel

This is an easy one. Craig Kimbrel was signed this offseason to be the closer while Felix Bautista rehabs from Tommy John surgery. The Orioles clearly wanted a veteran presence with a lot of closing experience, and they got just that in Kimbrel.

Kimbrel has 417 saves in his 14 MLB seasons, which ranks him eighth on the all-time list. With his acquisition, the Orioles can put Yennier Cano back into his set-up role, which he excelled in last season.

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