Orioles' clinching scenarios for Sunday: Baltimore needs an assist from Texas

We're now just a week away from the end of the 2024 MLB season and the Orioles are on the cusp of securing one of the six postseason spots in the American League. Despite Saturday night's extra innings loss to the Tigers, the Orioles can still clinch a postseason bid with a little help on Sunday afternoon.

As it stands after Saturday's games, the Orioles are 4.5 games up in the AL Wild Card race, though they're also 5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Their chances of winning the division are slim and would essentially require the O's to win out, and they'd also need the Yankees to lose at least 6 of their next 7 games.

Despite their long odds to win the division, the O's should still be able to secure a postseason spot. It's likely that they'll hang onto the top Wild Card spot and host the 5 seed in the first round of the playoffs.

In order to secure that spot on Sunday, two things will need to happen

First, the Orioles need to beat the Tigers on Sunday. They'll have Albert Suarez on the mound for the final regular season game at Camden Yards this year. The offense has been going through some challenges of late but they'll have a good opportunity to win against an iffy Tigers' pitching staff.

If the Orioles can win on Sunday, it'll put them at 87-69 and give them the tiebreaker over the Tigers thanks to a better interdivisional record. It would also knock the Tigers to 2 games behind the Twins in the loss column pending the results of Minnesota's doubleheader on Sunday.

In addition to a victory on Sunday, the Orioles will also need the Rangers to beat the Mariners on Sunday afternoon. The Rangers kept things close on Saturday night in Arlington but Seattle was able to come out on top, keeping their postseason chances alive for another day.

A Mariners loss would put them 7 games behind the Orioles in the loss column, and the O's have just 6 games left to play after Sunday. Because Baltimore holds the tiebreaker over Detroit, the difference in the loss column would be enough to secure a postseason bid for the Orioles in this scenario.

If the Orioles lose, or if the O's and Mariners both win, the earliest Baltimore would be able to clinch their spot would be on Tuesday. More factors will come into play at that point depending on the results of games on Sunday and Monday.

So the easiest thing as of now will be an Orioles victory and hoping the Mariners lose. That would guarantee the O's a playoff spot and allow Brandon Hyde to set up his postseason rotation over the next week of play. With any luck, the O's will be able to clinch this afternoon and take a bunch of stress out of the next two series against the Yankees and Twins.