Mike Elias isn't to blame for the Orioles' collapse - here's who is

The Orioles entered the 2024 season with World Series aspirations. The were coming off a 101 win season, traded for one of baseball's best pitchers, and had a crop of young talent waiting to blossom. Everything seemed to be going the Orioles' way in the first half of the season but they've stumbled in the second half and haven't been able to right themselves.

Doing what great leaders do, Mike Elias recently shouldered the blame for the teams troubles. He stated "Ultimately, I put the roster together, I put the staff together, I put the personnel together. And results in this business, whether it's this year or other years, it starts here with me." The sentiment from Elias has to make O's fans happy and his heart is in the right place, but Elias is clearly the last person to be blamed for this collapse.

The Orioles were overloaded with talent to start the season. Their triple-A affiliate, the Norfolk Tides, were considered by some to be a AAAA team due to all of the major league ready talent on the roster. Nobody could have foreseen the number of injuries the Orioles have had but Elias had plenty of talent to fall back upon. Unfortunately much of that talent has faltered at the major league level.

Many players struggle when they make the jump from the minors to the majors. Again, nobody could have predicted that two of baseball's best prospects, Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, would struggle this much for this long. Additionally the Birds' two best pitching prospects, Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich, also were not able to find success in their first chances at the big league level. Povich has shown signs of improvement but not enough to be relied upon in a pennant race.

A lot of the blame in these situations falls upon the manager. There are those that feel Brandon Hyde should be fired for the job he's done this season, but that seems like an overreaction. I'm not going to try and defend every move Hyde has made this season, there certainly have been some head scratchers, but he is a very good manager. Hyde is the defending manager of the year and was the runner up in 2022.

Elias put together a terrific team and is clearly not to blame for the team troubles. Hyde has done his best to give players the opportunities to succeed, but injuries and players underperforming have hurt the Orioles. So who is to blame?

It's commendable for Mike Elias to try to take the blame for the Orioles failures, but he isn't responsible for this second half collapse

The legendary Jim Palmer recently tweeted about those injuries and indicated that they are the primary cause of the Orioles' troubles. His opinion carries a significant amount of weight as one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history and a man who's been involved in major league baseball for almost 60 years, but I have to respectfully disagree. When it comes to shouldering the blame for the O’s recent play, the onus is on the players. 

The fault isn’t entirely on the players though. Elias could have been more aggressive at the trade deadline, Hyde has made some questionable moves, and this would be a very different team if healthy. However, the healthy players that remain are simply not performing up to their standards. Gunnar Henderson’s numbers have dropped considerably in the second half and his fielding has been far from what he’s capable of. Adley Rutschman’s slump has been well documented and Corbin Burnes had the worst month of his career in August. This trend goes from top to bottom on the roster with virtually nobody being immune. 

Prior to the All-Star break the Orioles as a team were batting .253/.313/.452 with a .746 OPS. As of the conclusion of Tuesday nights blowout, the Birds are slashing .239/.317/.404 with a .721 OPS post All-Star break. Approximately 40% of the team’s first half hits went for extra bases as opposed to 35% second half hits going for extra bases. The OBP is up slightly but everything else has gone down.

The pitching hasn’t been any better. The team ERA was 3.71 in the first half and 4.40 in the second half. Opponents batting average against the O’s was .230 and is now .254. OBP was .298, and is now .314, and opponents slugging percentage was .381 and is now .408 in the second half. Seemingly nothing has gone right for the O’s in the second half. Elias has gathered the talent and Hyde given his players the best chances to succeed, but if the players don’t perform there isn’t much a manager or GM can do. 

All is not lost and nobody should be giving up on this team. Henderson, Rutschman, and Burnes, as well as others, have begun to heat up. Jacob Webb has recently returned from injury and several other key players should be following him soon. If the Orioles can get hot over the last few weeks of the season and make a deep run in October the second half collapse will be all but forgotten.

It is commendable that Elias would attempt to take the blame for the team’s current stretch, but instead of blame he should be given credit. Not many other GM’s could put together a roster that could withstand the injuries the Orioles have this season and still be 17 games above .500 and holding onto the top Wild Card spot. Hopefully the Orioles can put this stretch behind them and get back to form as the season comes to a close.