3 stats that explain Adley Rutschman's down year

On June 27, Adley Rutschman was batting an even .300 with an .830 OPS, and both stats led all qualified catchers. He'd just gone 2-4 with a homerun and 2 RBIs in a dominant, 11-2 win over the reigning champions from Texas.

Since that game, something strange has happened. In his last 31 games, Adley is batting .173 with a .574 OPS. He has the worst AVG among qualified catchers in that time and the second worst OPS. He is 19-110 with 2 homeruns during the slump, the likes of which would send some players to the minors.

How does one of baseball's best catchers fall off so significantly? What data can we use to explain this, and can the numbers help him turn it around?

While his current slump is undeniably bad, it is only a 30 game sample — a relatively short part of a player’s long big league tenure. So, if we compare his entire 2024 season to his career numbers instead, it is easier to determine larger trends— and it appears that three "buckets" of stats explain his struggles: flyball rate/launch angle, catcher/DH splits, and chase/walk rates.

Flyball Rate & Launch Angle

Adley's career flyball rate (flyballs/balls in play) sits at 37.8% and his launch angle (LA) sits at 15.1 degrees. In 2024, his flyball rate has increased to 41.6% (+3.8%) and his LA to 18.1 degrees (+3).

Moreover, during his slump, his flyball rate is up to 46.3% and his LA up to 19.9 degrees — an even more exaggerated shift.

Adley's increased LA has led to more power. The 26-year-old catcher has 17 homeruns this season, just 3 shy of his 2023 total with more than a month of baseball to play.

But his new swing has produced significantly more flyball outs, as he is too often getting under the ball. So, it would benefit Adley to reduce his LA — closer to his 15.1 degree career average — even if it means sacrificing some of his newfound power.

Catcher & DH Splits

Throughout his short career, Adley has always hit better as a DH than as a catcher. As a catcher, he has a .253 AVG and .750 OPS. As a DH, those figures jump to a .307 AVG and .911 OPS.

But his splits this season are even more severe. In 75 games as catcher, Adley is batting .229 with a .653 OPS and 9 homeruns. In 34 games as DH, he is batting .344 with a .982 OPS and 8 homeruns. This split is the difference between an MVP-caliber player and a player who comes off the bench.

Of course, the sample sizes differ, but it is still evident that the position he plays affects his offensive production. So, it makes sense for the Orioles to DH Adley and put James McCann behind the dish for more games. This requires having McCann's weak bat in the lineup, but this could be offset if Adley continues to rake as a DH.

Chase & Walk Rates

Adley's 2024 walk rate sits at 9.2%, which is down from his 12.3% career average. Alongside this, his O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strikezone) is up to 30.6%, compared to his 25.7% career average.

Being aggressive at the plate can be a great approach but not when you are swinging at bad pitches, and that's one of Adley's issues. He needs to be more disciplined and take walks when they're there.

And he has already shown that he can do this. His 13.4% walk rate in 2023 was the 15th best in all of baseball, so he has it in him. Similar to his increased LA, it appears that Adley has changed his approach at the plate, swinging at more pitches even if they are out of the strike zone.

But based on his slump, it appears that he should try to regain the patience and discipline we have seen from him in previous seasons.

Altogether, some of the numbers begin to explain why Rutschman is in the midst of the worst slump of his young career. His increased launch angle has led to more flyballs and his altered approach at the plate has led to a higher chase rate and lower walk rate. And he is also hitting far worse as a catcher than he is as a DH.

So, to get him back to where he needs to be, the O's should get his LA down, focus on his plate discipline, and DH him more. Perhaps some combination of these changes could help get Adley back to the stud that we know he is.