Grading Orioles GM Mike Elias's last 5 first-round draft picks

The Orioles’ vaunted young core has been many years in the making. General manager Mike Elias had the privilege of a top-five draft pick in each of his first four years at the helm, but a top slot doesn’t necessarily guarantee success. (Just ask the Padres who still feel the pain of selecting Matt Bush No. 1 overall when they have to face No. 2 pick Justin Verlander.)

When Elias joined Baltimore in 2018, he had already built a reputation for keen draft choices as a scouting and player development guru with Houston. Under his supervision, the Astros nabbed Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers Jr., and many other keys to their multiple World Series appearances. 

Has Elias translated those results to the Orioles? Let’s take a look back and grade each of the GM’s first five first-round draft picks.

2019 - Adley Rutschman (No. 1) - A+

Elias started his tenure with a no-doubter. Rutschman was the consensus best pick in the draft and immediately garnered “face of the franchise” status. He sailed through the Minors and landed in Baltimore full-time in 2022. Since then, he has earned MVP votes, a pair of All-Star selections, and a Silver Slugger Award.

Rutschman entirely turned around the franchise. He draws comparisons to Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, and he has eclipsed Salvador Perez as the best catcher in the American League, if not the Majors. Orioles fans would appreciate one more point of comparison with those three legends: a long-term extension that keeps Rutschman in Baltimore for the foreseeable future.

2020 - Heston Kjerstad (No. 2) - B+

Elias’s preference for college bats became clear with this pick. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 draft was truncated, and the loss of the final months of high school and college baseball made evaluation difficult.

As a result, Kjerstad was a bit of a gamble. He ranked closer to No. 10 in most prospect rankings. Given the state of Baltimore’s pitching staff, this pick could have been spent on the bevy of college pitchers available in this draft, among them Garrett Crochet.

After missing the 2021 season with myocarditis, Kjerstad has done nothing but rake. The trouble here is a crowded outfield. Kjerstad could be the internal option for the slumping Cedric Mullins, but Baltimore may gain more from this draft pick by swapping him for a known entity.

2021 - Colton Cowser (No. 5) - B

I’m not sold on Cowser as a long-term fit at center field, but he seems to fit the profile of a high-strikeout, high-power bat. Regardless of how Cowser pans out, the Orioles ended up coming out ahead with this pick through sheer luck. Three of the next five picks have dealt with significant injuries, and the No. 10 pick, Kumar Rocker, did not sign.

Cowser has at least made an immediate impact with the club. He is one of a handful of 2021 draftees, alongside Sal Frelick and Matt McLain, to get significant time in the Majors so far. Like Kjerstad, he is trying to find where he fits in the Orioles’ outfield picture and could be a valuable trade asset. He could also slide into right field if Anthony Santander leaves via free agency after this season.

2023 - Enrique Bradfield (No. 17) - B+

Elias went back to the mold to draft a college outfielder once again, but Bradfield profiles as a much different player than Cowser or Kjerstad. The Vanderbilt product prioritizes speed over power, and for an Orioles squad that falls well below average in the stolen base department, he could give the team a new dimension. His slick fielding and table-setting skills have drawn comparisons to Kenny Lofton, but it will likely be several years before he makes the big leagues as he is currently in High-A.

This selection is the most difficult to grade considering the limited time that players have had to establish themselves. Most of the subsequent picks were high school bats, which generally require more time to develop. Only Hurston Waldrep has made a significant leap through the Minors, and while he would certainly be welcome on an injury-ridden Orioles staff, it’s likely Baltimore would have been unable to woo the Georgia native who compromised on an under-slot deal to sign with the Braves.