Corbin Burnes' August meltdown is bad news for his free agency expectations

Corbin Burnes has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers over the past four seasons, and he will undoubtedly cash in on a huge contract once he hits free agency this winter. However, his recent stretch of play has highlighted some potentially troubling trends.

Burnes entered August on top of his game, sitting squarely in the AL Cy Young race. He entered the month with an ERA below 2.50, stringing together six consecutive quality starts. He had been the model of consistency for the entire season, with his presence holding together an ailing Orioles rotation.

However, once August rolled around, everything changed. Burnes began the month with his worst start of the season at the time. He allowed five runs (four earned) in just five innings pitched against the Guardians. He found a way to bounce back in his next start, allowing three runs in six innings against Tampa Bay but he wasn't able to build off of this quality start.

After two iffy outings to start the month, Burnes would go on to have the worst start of his career, and it came on his very own bobblehead night. Burnes would get shelled by the scorching hot Red Sox, allowing eight runs and 10 hits in just four innings. The last two outings for Burnes haven't been pretty either, resulting in 12 runs in 10.2 innings. He finished the month with an ERA of 7.36.

How will the dismal month of August affect Burnes' free agency?

Burnes is still going to get paid a lot of money, from the Orioles or from someone else. However, this recent stretch of play has turned a terrific contract year into just a good one. When looking at Burnes' numbers, there isn't much to complain about. He's 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA in 164.1 innings, tied for sixth most in the majors.

At one point, Burnes was leading the majors in ERA, but now he's tied for 11th. He is also tied for the 16th best WAR among pitchers at 3.0, a solid number but not as high as we are used to seeing from him.

These numbers are all solid, but his recent struggles have shed some light on a few reoccurring issues for Burnes. For starters, the strikeout numbers have continued to dip over the last four seasons, with 2024 being the lowest K/9 of his career. This comes after he set his own personal low last season.

Pitchers don't have to strikeout a lot of batters to be successful, but it's strange to see Corbin Burnes landing in the 46th percentile in K%. Also, his inability to put away batters has been very prevalent over this tough stretch in August.

Although the strikeout numbers are concerning, the most troubling stat for Burnes can be found on the base paths. Burnes has allowed 37 stolen bases this season, by far the most of any pitcher in baseball (the next closest is at 25). This has routinely turned walks and singles into doubles and triples for Burnes, and you can see that it affects him on the mound.

These issues have been prevalent all season, but they are really starting to come to the surface now that he's going through this rough stretch. Many experts are starting to take notice of his struggles, with Burnes dropping out of the latest starting pitcher power rankings for the first time this season. It will be interesting to see if this causes any teams to lower their offers once free agency comes around.