Penalty Orioles would pay after signing a top-tier free agent for 2026 revealed

The Baltimore Orioles haven't swam in the deepest of free-agent waters for quite some time, but after a disappointing 2025 season, there's been a renewed push for the front office to be aggressive this offseason. The Orioles have been connected to the pitchers at the top of this winter's class, but money won't be the only thing it costs them.

Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Ranger Suarez are all set to become free agents, and each is eligible to receive the qualifying offer from their current teams. The offer is set at $22.025 million, and should the Orioles decide to sign one of them (or a different player who rejected a qualifying offer), they stand to lose some draft compensation.

What would it cost the Orioles to sign a qualifying offer free agent this winter?

When it comes to the penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer, the teams are grouped into different categories. As a small-market team, the Orioles find themselves among the revenue-sharing recipients. As such, if the Orioles sign a player attached to a qualifying offer this winter, the penalty would be the team's third-highest draft pick in 2026.

There are instances where the penalty can be washed out with a team losing a player to whom they attached a qualifying offer. That likely won't apply to the Orioles this offseason, however, considering they don't have a free agent would be worth the $22.025 million price tag.

If anything, it's another reminder that the Orioles may want to look to the trade market to address their need for a top-of-the-rotation arm. Unless something dramatically changes in the years ahead, the Orioles are never going to be the team that races out to make the biggest splash in free agency. In their market, the Orioles need to hold onto all of their draft picks. Especially when the free-agent class for starting pitchers isn't exactly the strongest collection of arms.

The trade market figures to have Freddy Peralta, Hunter Greene, Joe Ryan, and Mitch Keller all available. Baltimore used the trade route once to signal an aggressive offseason, and the stage is set for them to do it again.