Free agent contract predictions show Orioles will have to pay up to keep their word

Once the Baltimore Orioles find their next manager and complete the restructuring of the front office, pitching should be the theme of their offseason. It's no secret that the Orioles desperately need to address their pitching staff this offseason, and it can't be in the same way they did last winter--Charlie Morton was never going to be a suitable replacement for Corbin Burnes.

The good news for the Orioles is that it is a healthy free-agent market for starting pitchers. Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Ranger Suarez are all available this offseason. Looking beyond the free-agent market, controllable pitchers such as Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan, and Hunter Greene may be on the trade market.

There are plenty of opportunities for the Orioles to finally replace Burnes at the top of their rotation. For an Orioles team that has been hesitant to trade its top prospects in recent years, it would seem that the free-agent market will be the path they take to make the upgrade.

If so, the team will need to be ready to spend. Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter made some early contract projections, and if they become true, pitchers are about to be paid.

Bleacher Report's free agent predictions show that the Orioles can’t afford to cheap out this offseason

Surprisingly, Reuter has Suarez getting the largest contract with $160MM for 6 years. Valdez has the higher AAV with a projection of $135MM for 5 years, and Cease rounds it out with a projection of $125MM for 5 years. Cease may be the biggest surprise, considering some insiders expect him to seek a short-term, high-AAV deal after an inconsistent season with the San Diego Padres.

After seeing these projections, it makes sense why Reuter circled Tyler Mahle as the answer for the Orioles' need for pitching this history. Spending at the top of the market hasn't exactly been what Mike Elias has been known for during his time with the Orioles, and Mahle figures to be in the group of pitchers that sign after the top three options are off the market.

That said, desperate times call for desperate measures. The Orioles were one of the biggest disappointments in 2025, and if they operate this offseason in the same way they did last year, Elias almost certainly will be out of a job next winter. The solution is for the Orioles to finally spend money and get the ace that the fanbase has been begging for since the start of last season.