Orioles’ ZiPS projections are out and fans should be (mostly) thrilled

The Baltimore Orioles have been one of MLB's busiest teams this offseason, and the vast majority of their moves represent real upgrades to their roster. The Orioles already had a strong young core in place, and now they appear to be a team that has added enough quality veterans to make noise in the AL East. If they add Framber Valdez or another frontline starter, there is an argument that they are a leading AL contender.

Of course, those predictions are all just theories. It is easy to say a team is at a certain level without having to back that up with concrete data. Sure, Baltimore looks better, but how much better are they really? Which players are set to contribute the most? Who are the players whose data-based projections make them prime candidates to get culled?

Well, there are a lot of projection systems out there and they all have their pluses and minuses. However, one of the more respected and long-standing ones is ZiPS which is produced by Fangraphs' Dan Szymborski every year for every team in MLB. For the 2026 season, the Orioles' ZiPS projections are now out and it is mostly good news for fans in Baltimore.

ZiPS likes the Orioles in 2026, but they do still really need a frontline starter

Szymborski is abundantly clear that the offseason is not finished and the Orioles can look a lot better if they bring in an impact starter. In his own words, "The Orioles still need a dude. Or, if you prefer, an ace. Or maybe a Big Hoss?"

Starting with the Orioles' incumbents, Baltimore is unsurprisingly led by Gunnar Henderson in ZiPS with a projected 5.9 fWAR. After that, Jordan Westburg comes in second at 3.6 fWAR with Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, and Trevor Rogers all pegged to provide 2 fWAR or better. Rogers' projection of 2.6 fWAR may seem low to some fans, but the simplistic explanation is that ZiPS uses a player's entire track record, and Rogers' 2025 season was a bit of an anomaly (for now).

As for the newcomers the Orioles have welcomed thus far, most look like they will be solid or better in 2026. Ryan Helsley looks like he should be around a 1 fWAR player if he can get close to Fangraphs' projected 57.7 innings pitched. Unsurprisingly, Pete Alonso projects to lead the way among the additions to the roster with 3.4 fWAR predicted for 2026. Taylor Ward is projected for 2.3 fWAR, which would fit in nicely in an Anthony Santander-type role in the lineup. Finally, Shane Baz is currently projected to post 2.0 fWAR, although it certainly seems like Baltimore thinks he will be better than that.

Are these figures iron-clad? Absolutely not, and Szymborski would be the first to say so, and he would also say that he disagrees with ZiPS sometimes, and that is okay. However, the biggest takeaway here is that the Orioles' offense and bullpen are pretty well-liked by ZiPS, and the rotation is an impact arm away from being good.

Compared to the rest of the AL East, ZiPS has the Orioles in the same tier as the Yankees and a bit behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That may not come as a surprise to avid Orioles fans, but it is good to know exactly what the numbers are saying about them right now as the offseason heads into the home stretch.