Orioles wise to sit out Garrett Crochet talks as Red Sox pay hefty price in trade

The Boston Red Sox made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason, acquiring ace pitcher Garrett Crochet from the White Sox on Wednesday. Crochet was the top pitcher on the trade market, with rumors swirling ever since the 2024 trade deadline. The Orioles were once viewed as a top suitor for Crochet, but I think they made the right decision by staying away.

Crochet is one of the most electric arms in baseball, so the Red Sox had to shell out some major prospect capital. The headliners of the deal were Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, who rank number 25 and 54 in MLB pipeline's top 100. They also gave up Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez, their 11th and 14th best prospects.

The Red Sox had the luxury of making this deal thanks to their loaded farm system. Even after the trade, Boston still has three of the top 10 prospects in baseball. The Orioles no longer have that same luxury. Due to multiple trades, as well as numerous prospect graduations, the Orioles farm system isn't what it used to be. A trade for Crochet would've further depleted a system that has taken some big hits recently, and the O's may not have even been able to match what Boston had to offer.

Based on the package Boston gave up, it's fair to assume the White Sox would've wanted Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo, along with multiple other prospects or young players. Dealing away either of those players would've been a major blow to an already depleted farm.

Garrett Crochet's injury history makes him a risky addition

The talent is undeniable for Crochet, but he comes with some major risk. Crochet has appeared in just 104 games in his career, with a career total of 219 innings. He's dealt with numerous injuries, and 2024 was his first season as a full-time starter.

Boston is banking on the upside of Crochet, which is certainly fair. However, the Orioles desperately need consistency from their starting rotation. After an injury-riddled season for the entire O's rotation (outside of Corbin Burnes), it's fair to assume they are looking for a safer option to invest in.

Crochet was also a topic of controversy last season at the trade deadline. As I mentioned, he was one of the top names on the market last summer, but the White Six never pulled the trigger on a deal. This could have been due to the rumors that Crochet would refuse to pitch in the postseason without a contract extension.

It was also reported that Crochet would not move to the bullpen, a strategy that some teams would have employed to keep his innings down before a playoff run. The logic makes sense for Crochet due to his numerous injuries in the past. However, demands like these could be viewed as problematic in the future.

The O's could still land top-end starter in free agency or trade market

The options are dwindling for the Orioles, but I think there are still multiple options in both free agency and in the trade market that would make more sense for Baltimore.

The obvious one is bringing back Corbin Burnes. Burnes is going to get a massive contract when he eventually signs in free agency, especially after seeing what Max Fried signed for with the Yankees. Right now, it doesn't seem likely that he'll be returning, but there is a non-zero chance that the O's could make something happen.

The more likely scenario seems to be another trade for a starter, but someone cheaper than Crochet. This could be someone like Luis Castillo of the Mariners, Dylan Cease from San Diego, or Framber Valdez from Houston.

Cease and Valdez would make a lot of sense for Baltimore. Both players are in contract years, meaning the package required to get them would be a lot lighter than Crochet (who had mutliple years of control). Castillo could also be an option thanks to Seattle's need for major-league level hitters. Someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Heston Kjerstad could be appealing to the Mariners.

Ultimately, the decision to stay away from Crochet was a wise one for the O's.