Orioles trade of Grayson Rodriguez looks smarter by the day during spring training

The trade the Baltimore Orioles made with the Los Angeles Angels, swapping Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward, was odd. It is rare to see a pitcher as talented as Rodriguez, who is still under team control for four more seasons, get traded, let alone get traded for a player like Ward, who is in the last year of his deal.

The disparity between Rodriguez's and Ward's contracts meant that, for people to make sense of the trade, it was widely speculated that Rodriguez's arm was "cooked".

Suspicions that Rodriguez's arm was done were only heightened when it was revealed that this trade was an "as is" deal, in which the Angels were not given a chance to review Rodriguez's medicals and back out of the deal, like the Ravens did in the Maxx Crosby trade. Both Rodriguez and Angels GM Perry Minasian were firm in declaring that Rodriguez was healthy and that he'd be ready for spring training.

The trade basically came down to the Orioles betting against Rodriguez's arm and the Angels betting on it. Now that Rodriguez has made four spring training starts, there is a little bit of information that points to who might be right.  

What made Grayson Rodriguez a top prospect was his blazing fastball and the fact that he could pair it with multiple plus offspeed pitches. So far in spring training, Rodriguez's signature fastball has not yet shown up. He peaked at 98 mph in his first start, but that was just on a couple of pitches, and he had no command of them. In his most recent start, his fastball mostly sat around 94-95 mph, but some of them came in as low as 91 mph.

Grayson Rodriguez is back on a pitching mound, but far from the pitcher he once was with the Baltimore Orioles.

On top of the drop in velocity, his fastball has also lost two inches of induced vertical break, making it much more hittable. The same pitching metrics that, in years past, showed that Rodriguez had a really good slider and a great changeup now rate those pitches as average or below average.

The Angels have four years to figure something out with Rodriguez and get him back on track, so it's definitely possible the Orioles could live to regret that trade, but the version of Rodriguez that has come back this spring is not a pitcher the Orioles will lose much sleep over trading.

To give Rodriguez the benefit of the doubt, it's relevant to point out that it's been since 2024 that he has pitched in a major league game, so it's understandable that he wouldn't come back humming at 100 mph. Plenty of pitchers take it easy on their arms during spring training, especially if they have had injuries. Rodriguez could very well be on a doctor's orders not to throw max effort this spring.

That's all possible, but it doesn't feel very likely. It's hard to imagine Rodriguez going from throwing 91 mph fastballs to 100 mph fastballs in the next 10 days. If Rodriguez is going to reclaim his old form, it will take time.

The Orioles aren't in a position to let Rodriguez take his lumps on the road to recovery the way the Angels are; they need their entire rotation to hit the ground running. The Orioles may go the entire 2026 season without regretting trading Rodriguez. Where that regret may come into play is after the season, when half the Orioles rotation hits free agency, along with Taylor Ward, leaving them trying to put their rotation together while the Angels have a fully rebuilt Grayson Rodriguez.