Orioles' struggles in close games could have their postseason hopes on life support

Despite a season that has thrown a little bit of everything at them, the Baltimore Orioles still remain within striking distance of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. As of August 28, they trail the Cleveland Guardians by just three games. Like most teams, you can probably look back to several points throughout the season that could have drastically changed their current position.

For the Orioles, it's their inability to close out one-run games that has their postseason hopes and dreams on life support. 

With a 13-19 record in one-run games this season, Orioles fans have certainly seen their fair share of frustrating losses that might just keep them up at night. Sure, a one-run game means that your favorite team was competitive. But when those one-run losses start to pile up, it becomes too glaring an issue to ignore.        

A lot of things have to go right to make a playoff run. From avoiding major injuries to getting hot at the right times, a 162-game season is a tough grind. But the best of the best usually have one thing in common: they know how to win close games. Of the 12 teams currently in control of a playoff spot, only two have a one-run record below .500. 

When all is said and done and the last day of the regular season is played, the Orioles’ struggles in close games could be what keeps them from clinching a postseason berth. Just a few different outcomes in those one-run games could have Baltimore feeling a little more optimistic about their postseason chances heading into September. For now, it's a source of frustration.   

Orioles' playoff chances are alive but close games are killing them

The Orioles are tied with the Washington Nationals for the fourth-worst mark in one-run games in the entire league. And if you’ve paid attention to the Nats, you’d know that their bullpen has severely let them down all season. The Nationals also lead the league in blown saves with 33. While the Orioles’ bullpen has gone through its frustrating stretches, the unit has blown only 18 saves, which is fewer than both the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. 

Félix Bautista has missed most of the season so far, which has forced the bullpen into an awkward position. The Orioles thought they addressed that issue when they added Ryan Helsley before the season, but he has been plagued with injuries as well. Yet through all of the injuries and playing the majority of the season without a dedicated closer, the Orioles’ bullpen has managed to stabilize itself, posting a respectable 3.98 ERA on the season. How long the patchwork bullpen remains effective will be a major question as we head down the stretch, though.  

This is why the Orioles’ offense will need to step up their game and return to their early-season form if they’d like to remain in the Wild Card hunt. Obviously losing players such as Adley Rutschman and Taylor Ward at the trade deadline was a significant blow to the lineup. Through 21 games in August, the Orioles are scoring just 3.62 runs a game, more than a full run below their season average. And until the series against the Cardinals, their OPS this month was below .700.

Ironically, the Orioles are 3-2 in one run games in August, so perhaps Baltimore has found a way to make it work. But as the offense continues to slump, can the team’s pitching staff be trusted to carry the workload for another month? Rico Garcia has already appeared in 61 games this season, more than double his previous career high. With just three more off days left in the season, the bullpen will continue to be taxed and the margin for error will be slimmer than ever. 

The offense will have no choice but to produce for the Orioles. Players such as Coby Mayo and Gunnar Henderson will need to spark the bats for Baltimore to have any realistic chance at the postseason as we head down the stretch. If they can’t step up, the team will surely look to their record in one-run games and feel that twinge of regret come October.

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