3 biggest X-factors in Orioles' against-the-odds AL Wild Card chase

It hasn't been the season the Baltimore Orioles envisioned when they made a big splash to sign Pete Alonso over the offseason. The young core the organization was hoping would take a step up hasn't, and unfortunately, it resulted in them selling at the deadline. 

Lucky for the Orioles, the American League has been extremely uncompetitive this season, and even four games under .500 at 61-65 (as of Aug. 19), they are only 1.0 game out of the third Wild Card spot. They are in a seven-team race for that final spot, but a hot stretch could help them separate themselves from the pack. 

Of course, getting the production the team has hoped for from stars like Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson will help, but they will need others to step up too. 

3 biggest Orioles X-factors to fuel playoff push

Coby Mayo

The former top prospect has been solid in his first full MLB season. While his batting average is only .214, he's seen more of a power surge with 32 extra-base hits through his first 100 games, putting his slugging percentage at a respectable .445. If the Orioles want to make a push for the playoffs, they're going to need more, though. 

Having another power bat to pair with Henderson and Alonso goes a long way. Heart-of-the-order sluggers are good, but getting them protection in the lineup makes them that much better. In Mayo’s last 15 games, he's hitting .283 with a .609 slug. Keeping up that level of production for the rest of the season could be the boost the lineup needs. 

Yennier Cano

Unfortunately for the Orioles, it's been another season without All-Star closer Felix Bautista (though he is nearing a rehab assignment). They had added Ryan Helsley to step into the closer role, but he's been up and down with injuries this season as well. That has meant late-inning duties have been spread across a handful of relievers, including Cano.

While Cano has only seen the ninth inning eight times this season, 19 of his 54 appearances have come in the 8th, and 13 in the seventh. The righty has shown plus-plus stuff in the past, and getting him even close to that level will help an Orioles bullpen that ranks 15th in reliever ERA (4.13) look a lot steadier in the final month of the season. Cano has a 3.27 ERA this season, and it was 0.84 in July. Keeping that form will go a long way down the stretch.

Trevor Rogers

After breaking out in 2025, where the lefty had an exceptional 1.81 ERA in 18 starts and 109.1 innings, he's regressed back to the mean in 2026. Rogers has a 4.15 ERA in 23 starts this season, but since June 1 (2.45 ERA in 13 starts), he has been much closer to the 2025 version.

Baltimore starters have been up and down this season, but have found some consistency lately. Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz have been solid but not elite, and Brandon Young has been a nice find, but getting the ace they thought they were getting in Rogers after 2025 to lead the line every five games could be enough to push them over the top. 

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