Orioles’ struggles may have further ruined trade market for former Cy Young starter

Going into the season, the Baltimore Orioles knew that their starting pitching would be an issue. The question wasn't whether or not they'd need to add more at the trade deadline, but whether or not what they had to open the year would be enough to hold down the fort and remain in contention until reinforcements could be added in July.

One such player who seemed like an ideal target was Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, which cost him his entire 2024 campaign. The Miami Marlins, always willing to deal major-league talent, preferred to wait until the deadline to obtain maximum value for the talented 29-year-old hurler.

Unfortunately, the 2025 season has gone off the rails for both the Orioles and Alcantara. Baltimore is not going to blow up their core, but it will be one of the more active teams selling off assets that don't have a future with the organization beyond 2025.

Meanwhile, Alcantara's performance to date, which includes a ghoulish 6.66 ERA, has cooled a lot of the interest in him... for now.

The Orioles interest in a once-perfect pitcher has cooled at the MLB trade deadline

With Baltimore so far out of the race, they aren't in a position where they're willing to give up a boatload of assets for a starting pitcher at this point in the season. That's exactly what Miami will want in exchange for Alcantara, though his own poor performance this season has made acquiring such a haul a tall task.

It makes sense for both sides to hit the reset button, but that doesn't mean that Alcantara will be off Baltimore's radar for good. Barring another team coming in and blowing the Marlins away at the trade deadline, there's a good chance that Alcantara could be of great interest to Baltimore in the offseason.

For one thing, despite the poor ERA mark, it isn't necessarily Alcantara's stuff that's been the problem. His average fastball velocity has sat above 97 mph this season, only down slightly from his peak velocity in 2023. Instead, it seems like faulty command has been the primary driver of Alcantara's struggles. His chase rates were elite in 2022 and 2023, while he generated a ton of ground balls while limiting the free passes.

This year, his chase rate is down to 26.8%. His 46.9% ground ball rate is still very good, but it's a significant step back from his performance from 2021 through 2023. Finally, his BB/9 this year is 3.38, a significant increase from the 1.97 mark he posted in his 2022 Cy Young season.

The good news is that the stuff is still there, and with more time to shake off the rust, there's a decent chance his command comes back both inside and outside of the strike zone. Should that happen, he'll get more balls on the ground with his power sinker while also limiting hard contact in the air and converting more of the walks into strikeouts.

The Orioles may have to wait until the offseason to trade for Marlins' starter Sandy Alcantara

His contract situation in the offseason would make him a much more palatable gamble for the Orioles, who have eyes on returning to contention in 2026. He'll be owed $17.3 million, a more than fair price if he can return to form in 2026, and then the club would have to make a decision on his $21 million option for 2027.

That option money is roughly the equivalent of the qualifying offer, which any team would jump at signing Alcantara for if he were to return to form. However, it's also a club option, serving as an escape hatch should things not work out.

Therefore, a one-year commitment to Alcantara would make a lot more sense for Baltimore over a move for him at this year's deadline, as the risk would greatly be diminished and the reward could potentially be great should he turn it around down the 2025 stretch.

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