Orioles should target struggling Mets arm who might explode with change of scenery

If the Baltimore Orioles are serious about hanging banners and not just “being in the mix,” they can’t spend every winter window-shopping. At some point, they have to lean into what they do better than almost anyone else in baseball: taking talented, flawed arms from other organizations and turning them into something scary.

That’s exactly why they should be poking around on Kodai Senga while the Mets are busy talking themselves into trading him.

Orioles have no excuse to ignore a buy-low chance on Kodai Senga

2025 was a little messy for Senga. A hamstring injury chopped his season in half. Before that, he was carving through lineups with a 1.39 ERA in his early starts. However, after he got hurt, it was a different story. His mechanics got out of sync and the ERA ballooned to 6.56 over his final eight outings. It got bad enough that the Mets shipped him back to Triple-A in September.

Even with the injury, Senga still finished 2025 with a 7–6 record and a 3.02 ERA over 22 starts. For most teams, that’s a perfectly fine mid-rotation year. For the Mets — who seem determined to convince themselves they need “a more consistent frontline starter” — it’s apparently a reason to shop him. Let them. Baltimore should be waiting on the other end of the line.

Senga doesn’t need to be an ace in Baltimore. The Orioles need impact pitching, but they also need depth they can trust. Drop him into a rotation that already has frontline talent and he becomes the high-upside wildcard instead of the guy who has to carry New York talk radio on his back.

The environment helps, too. The scrutiny in Baltimore isn’t what it is in Queens, and Camden Yards is now far more forgiving to pitchers.

Here’s where this should perk up Mike Elias’ front office:

Senga is owed $14 million in both 2026 and 2027. Two years, manageable dollars, high-upside arm. Expensive enough that not every small-market team will play, but not so expensive that it compromises their looming wave of position-player extensions.

There’s also a wrinkle. Senga’s limited no-trade clause lets him block trades to 10 teams, and no one knows yet if Baltimore made that list. If the Orioles can convince him they’re serious about contending, they instantly become a much more attractive landing spot.

If Baltimore sits this out and watches Senga rediscover himself somewhere else — especially in the AL — it’ll feel like yet another arm they could’ve had for money and depth instead of prospect pain. The Mets may see a problem. The Orioles should see an opportunity. Sometimes you bet on your development, trust your clubhouse, and go get the starter who might explode in the right colors.

For Baltimore, Kodai Senga fits that bet almost perfectly.