Orioles season long offensive trend could be a problem against the Padres

The Baltimore Orioles salvaged a series split against the Seattle Mariners with two consecutive wins and once again find themselves within shouting distance of a .500 record and a playoff spot. This weekend, they'll face off with the San Diego Padres, who, after a strong start to the season, are in something of a spiral. With the way the Padres lineup has been performing and the starting pitchers that they'll be putting on the mound, the Orioles have an opportunity to finally build some momentum, but with Mason Miller and the rest of the Padres bullpen looming over everything, the Orioles will have to find a way to win without relying on miraculous late-inning comebacks.

This season, the Orioles' offense as a whole rates out quite well. By wRC+, they have a top 10 offense in baseball. However, they've been a very poor offense in the first three innings this season. Here are the Orioles stats and where they rank in the first three innings:

The Orioles need to score much earlier than usual against the Padres this weekend

Runs: 86 (23rd)
AVG: .220 (25th)
SLG: .358 (26th)
Strikeouts: 222 (3rd (In a bad way))
wRC+: 91 (21st)
wOBA: .301 (22nd)

Here are those same stats and where they rank in innings 7-9 and extra innings:

Runs: 113 (4th)
AVG: .248 (10th)
SLG: .383 (17th)
Strikeouts: 206 (6th (Still in a bad way))
wRC+: 105 (12th)
wOBA: .322 (12th)

As you can see from the numbers, this Orioles team plays a lot better towards the end of games than they do at the beginning of games.

The fact that the Orioles have had so many late-inning offensive explosions against relief pitchers is, on the whole, a positive development. In 2025, the Orioles were terrible in late-inning situations when they were trying to stage comebacks. They famously didn't get their first walkoff win until mid-August. So the fact that this year they are much more resilient is a great step forward.

Unfortunately, this kind of wait until late to do most of your damage approach plays right into the Padres hands. If the Orioles allow the Padres to get to the 7th inning with a lead, they are going to see a trio of all-star relievers in Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Mason Miller, and they are going to find it much more difficult to drop a crooked number on those guys.

It's not just them, either. Bradgley Rodriguez has broken out for the Padres this year, and Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are having career years. So really, if the Padres starter manages to get through five innings with a lead, it's going to be a tall task for the Orioles to stage a comeback.

Fortunately for the Orioles, the Padres' projected starters for this series are all guys for whom getting through five innings is a tall task. The Orioles need to reverse their season-long early-inning trade and attack Griffin Canning, Randy Vasquez, and Walker Buehler in the first three innings and take the Padres' elite bullpen out of the equation.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow