One of the few consistent parts of the Orioles season has been the names at the top of the order on a daily basis. Taylor Ward, Gunnar Henderson, and Pete Alonso have been locks for three of the four top spots, and since Adley Rutschman returned from the IL, he has also been a consistent presence at the top of the order. Looking at those four names, it feels like the Orioles should be well-positioned to strike early in games and for the first month of the season, when Ward and Rutschman were both lashing doubles around the park and getting on base at a near .400 clip, they were, but since the start of May, several of those bats have cooled and the Orioles rank 23rd in first innings wRC+.
Taylor Ward hasn't done much but walk for the past month
The downturn starts with Ward. At the start of the season, he looked like a revelation at the top of the order and quickly displaced Henderson as the leadoff man. At the end of April, his walk% was 18.8%, OBP was .438, which was great out of the leadoff spot, but more importantly than just the walks, he was slugging doubles and making a lot of contact in general. It seemed like the Orioles had scored big on their controversial Grayson Rodriguez trade.
In April, Ward walked even more, but the other parts of his game regressed. He struck out almost twice as much, so he just wasn't putting the ball in play nearly as often, and when he did, he had no power. Despite a very solid .359 on-base percentage, the decline in batting average and the total lack of power made him a well below average hitter for the month of May. It's hard to create early offense when your leadoff hitter has a wRC+ of 80.
Gunnar Henderson is still trying to find his way out of this slump
Henderson followed up a down April with a much worse May. In April, he had an extreme profile. He struck out over 30% of his at-bats, but when he did make contact, it was hard contact, and he had 16 extra-base hits. In May, he got the strikeout problem under control at the expense of all his power. The result was a much worse overall hitter.
Evaluating Henderson has been hard. He has had flashes of brilliance where it looks like the old Henderson is back, but those are inevitably followed by brutal cold streaks. His wRC+ in May was even worse than Ward's at 79.
Adley Rutschman had an unlucky May
Rutschman has been the regular three-hole hitter after a mid-April flip-flop with Alonso. Rutschman's hot start to the season comforted fans who were concerned that his best days were behind him. That is great, but unfortunately, he struggles in May, highlighting that his worst days aren't behind him either.
After hitting .356/.406/.661 through April, Rutschman put up a .188/.292/.244 triple slash in May. The good news with Rutschman is that out of this trio of struggling hitters, his decline seems more luck-related. He had a sub-.200 BABIP in May despite very similar batted ball data month over month. If he just stays the course, he should bounce back soon.
Clearly, the struggles that the top of the Orioles order have faced have not been small or short-lived. After being allowed to struggle for an entire month, the Orioles should consider a batting order shake-up.
One idea that would be interesting to see deployed, even if it would look unconventional, would be to move Rutschman up to the leadoff spot, which was a place the Orioles expiremented with him at early in his career, move Samuel Basallo up to the 2-hole as he's been the Orioles best hitter this year and then slide Pete Alonso back up to the three spot in the order. Henderson and his team, leading 13 home runs, could fit in at the still very respectable 4-spot in the lineup, and Ward could slot in behind him as the number five hitter.
Starting every game with a switch hitter with excellent on-base skills and then a power lefty followed by a power righty, would put a lot of pressure on opposing starters. If they walk Rutschman to start the game, they know if they make a mistake to any of the next three hitters, they'll give up a crooked number.
Of course, that would probably be the slowest 1-2-3 of any team in baseball, but let the speedy guys at the bottom of the order create runs with infield singles and stolen bases. This top of the order would create runs in bulk.
