Orioles rumored interest in surprisingly hot Dustin May market makes little sense

The Baltimore Orioles enter the offseason with the need to add at least two starting pitchers to their rotation to join a current group that includes Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, and Brandon Young. They’ve pulled off notable trades in each of the last two offseasons to acquire quality pitching, but their free agent acquisitions in recent years have left much to be desired. 

There’s still a chance that Trevor Rogers returns to Baltimore this winter, but it’s not a guarantee. Based on Mike Elias’s recent history, there are a few options that make sense as likely Orioles alternatives, and Jon Heyman confirmed over the weekend that Baltimore “has interest” in Nick Martinez and Matthew Boyd. That’s not shocking at all. 

According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, we can add another name to the mix for the Baltimore Orioles: World Series champion Dustin May. Per Bowden, May’s market is “blowing up” right now, with the Orioles, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Reds, Guardians, Marlins, White Sox, and Blue Jays all in the mix. 

Dustin May would be a solid backend rotation option for the Baltimore Orioles, but only to a point

As a backend starter to round out the rotation and complement a much bigger move, Dustin May would be a solid addition for the Orioles. 

The oft-injured 29-year-old is coming off a career season that saw him go 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA and 3.63 FIP with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. His jump in K-BB% from 11.5% in 2025 to 15.6% this season was also encouraging. 

May’s 2026 season is actually an interesting case study to dive into. He significantly raised his arm angle to 35 degrees and began using his four-seamer and cutter nearly 50% of the time, after using the offerings a combined 26% of the time last season. The result was particularly notable with May’s four-seamer, a pitch that graded out as a below-average offering last year and a slightly above-average offering in 2026, in part due to an extra tick of velocity and an extra three inches of induced vertical break (IVB).

The higher arm angle and more lively fastball that averaged 97 mph proved to be a more effective weapon, not the same type of pitch that May featured as a top prospect coming up with the Dodgers, but a much stronger offering compared to the fastball he threw in 2025. 

There may not be a massive ceiling to unlock with May, even though many teams over the years have seemed to think they could be the team to unlock the version of May that many dreamed of when he was a prospect. Perhaps a bit more tinkering can get May down to a 4-4.5 ERA next season with strong K-BB numbers. There are enough signs in his 2026 profile that point to a more interesting pitcher than his 4.70 ERA suggests. 

Should the Orioles emerge from the large pack of teams currently in play for Dustin May, they would still need to aggressively address the top of the starting rotation, but May would be a better option to fortify the backend of the rotation compared to a Nick Martinez, for example, who the Orioles also have interest in, but is coming off an outlier season and severely declining strikeout numbers. 

As always, the question comes down to price. If May is drawing this much interest, he might garner a contract far beyond what he can actually produce. In that situation, signing him could handcuff the Orioles from making the more impactful moves they desperately need to make to return to the postseason in 2027.

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