These are the Orioles' most likely free agent targets based on Mike Elias’s history

The Baltimore Orioles finally landed a big fish in free agency last year with the signing of first baseman Pete Alonso, a signing that still doesn’t feel real some days. They now go into this offseason with clear needs in the outfield and starting rotation. While it’s fun to daydream about the Orioles swooping in and landing Tarik Skubal or adding some much-needed punch to their lineup with the addition of Randy Arozarena or Seiya Suzuki, history suggests that the Orioles won’t be willing to pay what it takes to win bidding wars for these top free agents.

Who are some more realistic targets for the Orioles based on Mike Elias and this front office’s history? Here are three starting pitchers and two outfielders that the Orioles are more likely to target this offseason.

These three starting pitchers are the type of bargains the Orioles like to pursue

David Peterson

Things didn’t go particularly well for Peterson while he was with the New York Mets this season, pitching to a 6.09 ERA across 68 innings and losing his spot in the starting rotation before being traded to the Chicago Cubs, where he was able to rebound and finish the year on a high note. His 6.09 ERA with the Mets came with a 3.85 FIP, in large part due to a subpar defense playing behind him. With Chicago, Peterson pitched to a 3.70 ERA across 80 innings, benefiting from one of the top defenses in baseball.

Peterson is far from a flamethrower, but he’s been a reliable arm who has thrown 148 and 168 innings the last two seasons with a sub-4.00 FIP and groundball rates north of 50% each of the last four seasons.

New Orioles general manager Jared Banner has discussed the importance of greatly improving the defense in Baltimore this offseason. If they can do so, Peterson could find similar success with the Orioles. MLB Trade Rumors projects a two-year, $24 million deal, which seems right up the Orioles' alley.

Nick Martinez

Nick Martinez may be 36 years old, but he’s coming off a season that saw him throw a career-high 180 innings with the Tampa Bay Rays, posting a 3.10 ERA and walking just 3.6% of the batters he faced. However, his 15% strikeout rate continued a yearly trend of diminishing strikeouts and swinging-strike rates.

Martinez allows a decent amount of contact, and he’s not a groundball pitcher, but he was effective at preventing hard contact, ranking in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity and the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed this season.

The Orioles have a history of signing these types of pitchers, and it’s hard to imagine they aren’t closely monitoring his market. Even though he’s a 36-year-old pitcher who sits 93 mph with a 15% strikeout rate, MLB Trade Rumors projects a two-year, $44 million deal for Martinez, with multiple MLBTR writers believing he ultimately signs with the Orioles.

Patrick Sandoval

According to MLB’s Mark Feinsand, Patrick Sandoval has more than a half-dozen suitors early on in free agency, as many view him as a bargain with real bounceback potential.

Sandoval missed the 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery and returned in 2026 with less-than-stellar results. In 15 appearances with the Boston Red Sox, Sandoval pitched to a 5.12 ERA with a 23% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate, but that also came with a .382 batting average on balls in play and a much more respectable 3.77 FIP.

One NL executive quoted by Feinsand summed up Sandoval’s appeal: “His fastball plays. Everybody thinks they can fix the rest.” Could one of those more than a half-dozen suitors be the Orioles? It’s very likely.

A pair of outfielders who make sense for the Orioles

Daulton Varsho

Varsho is an intriguing buy-low candidate this offseason. The injury history is long, and he’s coming off his worst season in the majors, where he hit .221 with 12 home runs and a 78 wRC+ in 140 games, but he would bring a much-needed outfield glove to Baltimore and has shown much more power in recent history.

There was a deliberate effort by Varsho to move away from his pull-heavy approach in 2026, and while that resulted in a big decrease in strikeouts and his swinging-strike rate and a huge boost in his in-zone contact rate, it also resulted in a massive drop in his isolated power (ISO), going from .310 last year to a career-low .134 in 2026.

Varsho's seven Outs Above Average in center field last season rank among the best in the league, and with an expansive left field at Camden Yards, Varsho would fit in nicely defensively there as well. If he’s the big outfield addition the Orioles are in the market for, that would be a big disappointment, but as a fourth-outfielder/depth signing to mix into the outfield rotation, the Orioles should be in. He’s projected to land a two-year, $20 million deal.

Tyrone Taylor

The same logic applies to Tyrone Taylor, but Taylor is coming off the best offensive season of his career, ranks in the 92nd percentile in sprint speed, and features a much stronger arm than Varsho.

In 97 games with the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, Taylor hit .279 with 11 home runs and a strong 17% strikeout rate. He can play all three outfield spots defensively, and while he’s not going to bring a ton of power to the plate and has posted a walk rate north of 6% just once in his career, Taylor has little swing-and-miss in his game and can put the ball in play and utilize his speed. His style of play would be a welcome addition to the lineup.

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