Orioles’ qualifying offer decision with Trevor Rogers is painfully obvious this offseason

The MLB offseason's first checkpoint comes five days after the end of the World Series. Teams have to decide whether or not to offer the qualifying offer to their impending free agents (who have never been offered it before and spent the entire season with that team). This season, the qualifying offer (QO), which is a one-year contract, will be worth just over $23 million. If a player declines, the team he left gets draft pick compensation.

For the Baltimore Orioles, they have one player this offseason who is a no-brainer to be given the offer. Trevor Rogers is reaching free agency for the first time this offseason after spending the last two and a half years with the Orioles. After an incredible 2025 season, 2026 wasn't as sharp, but that doesn't mean he isn't worth the risk of the QO.

Trevor Rogers is the perfect example of a qualifying offer candidate

The biggest reason the Orioles should do this is the lefties standing in the offseason's free agent class. The 2026-27 free agent class is almost devoid of star talent, and because of that, Rogers will be one of the best free agent pitchers available. That should start a bidding war for Rogers' services.

The New Mexico native is hitting free agency at just the right time in his career. 29 years old is an age where many teams will feel comfortable handing out contracts closer to the four- to five-year range, knowing that they will get him in a good chunk of his prime years. Should the Orioles extend him the QO, it would be very unlikely that he would take it. If he does sign elsewhere, the Orioles will get an extra draft pick.

On the chance he does, it wouldn't be the end of the world for the O's. While $23 million is a lot, it would only be for one season, and Rogers would instantly slide back into the top spot in the rotation (barring another addition). If the Orioles are going to be at the trade deadline, another team would likely take his services, even with the large contract.

If, for some reason, having a qualifying offer attached to him on the open market scares teams away, it only helps the Orioles' chances at re-signing him, even if it is a short-term deal. In the past few offseasons, multiple players have been extended qualifying offers, and other teams don't think those players are worth giving up the draft pick to sign them. Pete Alonso is an excellent example.

In the Polar Bear's first chance at free agency, the Mets extended him the QO, which he declined. Other teams around the league were too afraid to give him a long-term deal. He eventually re-signed with New York on a one-plus-one deal that gave him the option to opt out after the first year. If that is what happens to Rogers, why wouldn't Baltimore be happy to have him back on that style of contract?

Baltimore is set up perfectly this offseason to extend the qualifying offer to Rogers. If he accepts, great! He is back for at least one more season. If he declines, at least the Orioles get a draft pick back. There is also nothing that says the Orioles can't still sign him to a long-term deal even if he does decline. It is the perfect scenario for the Orioles.

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