Orioles playoff odds improve but AL East reality still looks unforgiving

The Baltimore Orioles had a very good offseason and managed to add some big names. Even though the team looks much better on paper, they still face an uphill climb in what should be a crowded American League East.

FanGraphs released its projected win totals for the 2026 season and right now, they project the Orioles to finish in fourth place in the AL East. It's just a projection, but it speaks to how tough Baltimore's division figures to be this coming season.

Orioles will face a tough uphill climb in AL East in 2026

On the bright side, FanGraphs does not have any team running away with the AL East. They project the Yankees to win 86 games, the Red Sox and Blue Jays to win 85 games, and the Orioles to win 84 games with the Rays projected to come in last place at 78 wins.

Basically, the projection shows a tight race, which is not all that surprising. The Blue Jays were just one break or two their way away from winning the World Series last season and they were aggressive in the offseason, landing Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers, and Kazuma Okamoto.

The Yankees are stacked and have a ton of money and assets so you know if they are in the mix at the trade deadline they are going to make a move. Boston surprised people last season by winning 89 games and making it into the playoffs so they cannot be overlooked either.

The Orioles seem like a good bet to make noise in the AL East, though. Adding Pete Alonso gives the team a big slugger in the middle of the order, and they shored up the bullpen a bit by signing Ryan Helsley. There are still several question marks when it comes to the rotation, but perhaps the Orioles can get away with it if they slug their way to wins early in the year and then maybe make a trade to add a pitcher at the deadline.

The roster is far from perfect, but this year's Orioles seem far better equipped to try and hang in a crowded AL East. Winning the division may be a bit too ambitious of a goal at this point, but it is not at all unreasonable to shoot for something like 85 wins and hope for a Wild Card spot.