Orioles’ offseason whiff is getting harder to ignore after latest Trevor Rogers intel

Spring training has started for the Baltimore Orioles, and they don't appear to be any closer to adding a frontline starting pitcher. The Orioles have upgraded the rotation with the trade for Shane Baz, but bringing back Zach Eflin was the only other move to provide stability for the rotation. The Orioles certainly need another frontline starting pitcher to be a true contender this season, but Trevor Rogers' looming status is another reason why.

Rogers was one of the lone bright spots of the Orioles' 2025 season, posting an ERA of 1.81 in 18 starts. Had he been healthy for the entire season (and Baltimore was a contender), Rogers would have easily been a Cy Young candidate.

The Orioles and Rogers agreed to a $6.2 million deal, avoiding arbitration, but if the 28-year-old starting pitcher stays healthy and has similar success, his price is going to skyrocket.

CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson took an early look at next offseason's free agency class, and it may already be too late for the Orioles to sign Rogers to an extension. Anderson has Rogers as the fifth-best free agent next offseason, and the third starting pitcher behind Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta.

Orioles’ quiet extension mistake might come back to haunt them in a big way with Trevor Rogers

It's a weak free-agent class, and given the rising prices for pitching this offseason, it's a safe bet to assume Rogers will get a lucrative long-term contract next winter. In other words, the type of contract that the Orioles have avoided with free-agent starting pitchers.

If there is a silver lining, it's that the pending work stoppage in 2027 could thwart the market. Perhaps there is a situation where Rogers opts for security before the CBA expires in December, and the Orioles can keep him on a short-term deal with a high AAV. That may not be the likeliest of outcomes, though.

It's why Mike Elias' navigating through the end of the offseason was a failure. Framber Valdez was the clear answer, and his contract with the Detroit Tigers, assuming the Orioles had a similar offer on the table, would have given Baltimore cover with Rogers becoming a free agent next winter.

It's also why Zac Gallen may not make the most sense for Baltimore. Gallen is looking for an early opt-out, and if signed by the Orioles, Elias would be facing a similar problem next offseason that he was this offseason.

Elias not adding a frontline starting pitcher in time for the start of spring training is already problematic. Now factor in the chance that the rotation looks even worse with Rogers' departure next offseason, and it's not an ideal set of circumstances.